PHI101
FINAL
115CLE
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Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers — Win Probability

FINAL
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
34-29
101
VS
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
39-25
115
Model expected score: Philadelphia 76ers 114.4 – Cleveland Cavaliers 120.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut
CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Cavaliers won by 14
COMBINED SCORE
216

Margin of Victory — Cleveland Cavaliers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
34%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
18%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+
14%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 216.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
78% over22% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
59% over41% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
39% over61% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
28.3
Joel EmbiidC
26.9
Paul GeorgePF
17.3
VJ EdgecombeSG
16.0
Kelly Oubre Jr.SF
14.1
CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
27.9
James HardenPG
20.5
Evan MobleyPF
18.2
Darius GarlandPG
18.0
Jarrett AllenC
15.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
PHI
115.58
14th / 30
Points
CLE
118.74
4th / 30
PHI
43.14
21st / 30
Rebounds
CLE
44.31
12th / 30
PHI
24.53
28th / 30
Assists
CLE
28.29
8th / 30
PHI
99.67
13th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CLE
99.68
12th / 30
PHI
52.91%
25th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CLE
55.46%
6th / 30
PHI
11.57%
7th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CLE
11.82%
12th / 30
PHI
26.34%
11th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CLE
27.12%
9th / 30
PHI
.279
12th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CLE
.259
18th / 30
PHI
115.96
15th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CLE
119.12
6th / 30
PHI
116.45
17th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CLE
114.95
13th / 30
PHI
-0.49
19th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CLE
+4.17
7th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.90%26th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.47%10th/30
12.6521st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.527th/30
35.8720th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.517th/30
35.27%20th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.85%14th/30
28.7814th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.6017th/30
54.409th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.3324th/30
52.91%26th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.82%4th/30
20.445th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.3519th/30
25.2110th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.5517th/30
81.09%4th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.92%17th/30
11.9010th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.029th/30
31.3926th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.4316th/30
9.226th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.869th/30
5.616th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.239th/30
13.267th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.5712th/30
20.4420th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.8212th/30
Opponent
47.06%16th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.17%8th/30
13.2614th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.9123rd/30
37.2217th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.7220th/30
35.64%15th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.87%28th/30
28.7013th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.356th/30
51.9711th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.6410th/30
55.23%18th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.96%7th/30
19.2519th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.5415th/30
24.4920th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.4314th/30
78.62%18th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.12%21st/30
11.9122nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.6418th/30
33.2819th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.3010th/30
7.422nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.7420th/30
5.2521st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.386th/30
15.076th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.887th/30
20.3017th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.5419th/30
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