SA110
FINAL
107TOR
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San Antonio Spurs vs Toronto Raptors — Win Probability

FINAL
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
39-16
110
VS
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
34-23
107
Model expected score: San Antonio Spurs 116.7 – Toronto Raptors 115.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut
TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Spurs 56%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Spurs won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
217

Margin of Victory — Toronto Raptors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
54%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
6%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 217.

O/U LINE 210
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 220
73% over27% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
54% over46% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
33% over67% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
17% over83% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
25.0
De'Aaron FoxPG
18.6
Stephon CastlePG
16.7
Devin VassellSG
13.9
Julian ChampagnieSF
11.1
TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon IngramSF
21.5
RJ BarrettSF
19.3
Scottie BarnesPF
18.1
Immanuel QuickleyPG
16.4
Jakob PoeltlC
10.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
SA
118.24
6th / 30
Points
TOR
113.63
23rd / 30
SA
46.51
3rd / 30
Rebounds
TOR
43.02
22nd / 30
SA
26.90
11th / 30
Assists
TOR
29.10
4th / 30
SA
99.70
15th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
TOR
98.42
20th / 30
SA
54.98%
10th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
TOR
53.56%
18th / 30
SA
11.41%
5th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
TOR
11.70%
10th / 30
SA
26.03%
13th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
TOR
25.94%
14th / 30
SA
.282
10th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
TOR
.256
20th / 30
SA
118.59
9th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
TOR
115.45
16th / 30
SA
112.32
3rd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
TOR
113.57
6th / 30
SA
+6.27
4th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
TOR
+1.88
13th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.65%9th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.09%12th/30
13.1916th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.7425th/30
37.5215th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.9324th/30
35.16%20th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.62%24th/30
29.639th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.023rd/30
52.3613th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
56.886th/30
56.59%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.53%15th/30
19.758th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.1919th/30
25.318th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.2319th/30
78.04%18th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.28%15th/30
11.4914th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.5712th/30
35.161st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.1318th/30
7.6824th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.7712th/30
5.328th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.9813th/30
13.014th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.3811th/30
18.904th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.2326th/30
Opponent
45.26%4th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.03%8th/30
12.9710th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.0914th/30
36.389th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.7518th/30
35.65%13th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.67%5th/30
28.4611th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.407th/30
55.1728th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.206th/30
51.59%4th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.58%13th/30
16.491st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.5124th/30
20.961st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.5120th/30
78.67%18th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.62%25th/30
10.906th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.3110th/30
32.6613th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0516th/30
7.776th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.1611th/30
4.648th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.3423rd/30
12.8525th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.335th/30
20.7624th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.7910th/30
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