PHI111
FINAL
126NO
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Philadelphia 76ers vs New Orleans Pelicans — Win Probability

FINAL
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
30-25
111
VS
New Orleans Pelicans logo
New Orleans Pelicans
15-42
126
Model expected score: Philadelphia 76ers 117.4 – New Orleans Pelicans 118.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut
NO
  • Trendon WatfordDay-To-Day
  • Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
  • Zion WilliamsonDay-To-Day
  • Yves MissiOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pelicans 50%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Pelicans won by 15
COMBINED SCORE
237

Margin of Victory — New Orleans Pelicans (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
48%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
15%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
10%
Won by 21+
8%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 237.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 230
61% over ✓39% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
41% over59% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
28.3
Joel EmbiidC
26.9
Paul GeorgePF
17.3
VJ EdgecombeSG
16.0
Kelly Oubre Jr.SF
14.1
NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Trey Murphy IIISF
21.5
Zion WilliamsonPF
21.0
Saddiq BeySF
17.7
Dejounte MurrayPG
16.7
Jeremiah FearsPG
14.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
PHI
115.91
14th / 30
Points
NO
114.84
20th / 30
PHI
43.41
19th / 30
Rebounds
NO
43.57
17th / 30
PHI
24.50
28th / 30
Assists
NO
24.97
24th / 30
PHI
99.73
14th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
NO
100.15
12th / 30
PHI
52.76%
26th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
NO
52.54%
27th / 30
PHI
11.59%
8th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
NO
11.51%
7th / 30
PHI
26.90%
9th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
NO
26.68%
10th / 30
PHI
.287
6th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
NO
.277
12th / 30
PHI
116.23
13th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NO
114.67
24th / 30
PHI
116.42
16th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NO
120.38
27th / 30
PHI
-0.20
17th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
NO
-5.72
25th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.72%26th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.39%18th/30
12.7020th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.1428th/30
35.9418th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.2326th/30
35.33%16th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.56%25th/30
28.5119th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.834th/30
54.189th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
58.264th/30
52.61%27th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.93%26th/30
21.134th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.5910th/30
25.895th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.0311th/30
81.60%4th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.27%18th/30
12.188th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.149th/30
31.3527th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.3726th/30
9.106th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.7611th/30
5.824th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7217th/30
13.309th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.207th/30
20.5619th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.8715th/30
Opponent
47.05%17th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.87%25th/30
13.0912th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.5327th/30
36.6916th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.1429th/30
35.68%11th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.31%9th/30
29.0415th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.2117th/30
52.8615th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.236th/30
54.95%17th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.16%28th/30
19.0719th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.3713th/30
24.5319th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.4814th/30
77.74%8th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.23%13th/30
12.0525th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.4829th/30
33.0917th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.3519th/30
7.413rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.765th/30
5.1621st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.9229th/30
15.026th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.8916th/30
20.5918th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.0712th/30
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