UTAH115
FINAL
111MIA
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Utah Jazz vs Miami Heat — Win Probability

FINAL
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
16-37
115
VS
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
28-25
111
Model expected score: Utah Jazz 117.8 – Miami Heat 127.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

UTAH
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out
MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Heat 78%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Jazz won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
226

Margin of Victory — Miami Heat (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
25%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
17%
Won by 21+
21%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 226.

O/U LINE 210
97% over ✓3% under
O/U LINE 220
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 230
78% over22% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
60% over40% under ✓
O/U LINE 250 MODEL'S PICK
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
22% over78% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Lauri MarkkanenPF
26.7
Keyonte GeorgePG
23.6
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
22.3
Brice SensabaughSF
14.9
Walker KesslerC
14.4
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Norman PowellSG
21.7
Tyler HerroSG
20.5
Bam AdebayoC
20.1
Andrew WigginsSF
15.4
Pelle LarssonSG
11.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
UTAH
118.20
6th / 30
Points
MIA
119.53
4th / 30
UTAH
44.24
14th / 30
Rebounds
MIA
46.69
2nd / 30
UTAH
30.04
2nd / 30
Assists
MIA
28.64
7th / 30
UTAH
102.41
2nd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIA
103.58
1st / 30
UTAH
53.85%
17th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIA
53.39%
19th / 30
UTAH
13.03%
23rd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIA
11.61%
8th / 30
UTAH
26.24%
12th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIA
25.13%
19th / 30
UTAH
.288
6th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIA
.263
17th / 30
UTAH
115.42
19th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
115.40
20th / 30
UTAH
123.40
30th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
113.24
4th / 30
UTAH
-7.97
28th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIA
+2.16
11th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.72%16th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.24%20th/30
12.5921st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.9518th/30
36.0618th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.8121st/30
34.90%20th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.18%13th/30
28.6816th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.9112th/30
52.2614th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.738th/30
54.88%14th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.82%25th/30
20.317th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.7115th/30
25.4110th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.7716th/30
79.93%7th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.73%14th/30
11.5513th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.5016th/30
31.6423rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.5810th/30
7.8122nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.8610th/30
3.4430th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.0029th/30
14.9024th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.278th/30
21.3927th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
18.332nd/30
Opponent
48.99%28th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.82%5th/30
15.2630th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.3216th/30
40.8728th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.3721st/30
37.35%28th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.72%5th/30
28.4812th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.958th/30
48.431st/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.7011th/30
58.81%30th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.06%10th/30
20.6528th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.387th/30
26.6428th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.543rd/30
77.53%6th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.68%30th/30
11.3012th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.5515th/30
32.4811th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.2527th/30
8.9323rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.9210th/30
5.8428th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.1321st/30
12.7125th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.4510th/30
20.2915th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.417th/30
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