UTAH117
FINAL
120ORL
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Utah Jazz vs Orlando Magic — Win Probability

FINAL
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
16-36
117
VS
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
25-23
120
Model expected score: Utah Jazz 116.8 – Orlando Magic 124.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

UTAH
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out
ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Magic 74%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Magic won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
237

Margin of Victory — Orlando Magic (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
31%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
17%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 237.

O/U LINE 210
95% over ✓5% under
O/U LINE 220
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 230
72% over ✓28% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
52% over48% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
32% over68% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
16% over84% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Lauri MarkkanenPF
26.7
Keyonte GeorgePG
23.6
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
22.3
Brice SensabaughSF
14.9
Walker KesslerC
14.4
ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
22.2
Franz WagnerSF
20.6
Desmond BaneSG
20.1
Anthony BlackPG
15.0
Jalen SuggsPG
13.8

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
UTAH
118.26
6th / 30
Points
ORL
115.14
T-19th / 30
UTAH
43.98
14th / 30
Rebounds
ORL
43.51
19th / 30
UTAH
30.06
2nd / 30
Assists
ORL
26.31
16th / 30
UTAH
102.45
2nd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
ORL
100.04
13th / 30
UTAH
53.96%
17th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
ORL
52.69%
26th / 30
UTAH
13.08%
23rd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
ORL
11.85%
12th / 30
UTAH
26.14%
13th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
ORL
25.49%
16th / 30
UTAH
.287
7th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
ORL
.306
2nd / 30
UTAH
115.44
19th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ORL
115.09
21st / 30
UTAH
123.64
30th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ORL
115.50
14th / 30
UTAH
-8.20
28th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
ORL
-0.41
17th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.81%16th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.30%19th/30
12.6321st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.3326th/30
36.0618th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.3025th/30
35.04%19th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.02%29th/30
28.6816th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.7310th/30
52.1914th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
55.397th/30
54.94%15th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.68%21st/30
20.197th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.641st/30
25.3111th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.142nd/30
79.77%7th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.71%8th/30
11.4916th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.2519th/30
31.4426th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.2417th/30
7.8122nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.5114th/30
3.4630th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.179th/30
14.9524th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.5212th/30
21.3326th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.9521st/30
Opponent
49.10%28th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.14%25th/30
15.2730th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.923rd/30
40.7928th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.971st/30
37.43%28th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.15%18th/30
28.6813th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.1425th/30
48.701st/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.4122nd/30
58.89%30th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.40%22nd/30
20.4828th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.4623rd/30
26.3228th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.0123rd/30
77.82%10th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.82%11th/30
11.3312th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.624th/30
32.4712th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.8916th/30
8.9923rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.909th/30
5.8928th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.3524th/30
12.6925th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.569th/30
20.2614th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.0130th/30
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