MEM115
FINAL
135POR
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Memphis Grizzlies vs Portland Trail Blazers — Win Probability

FINAL
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
20-29
115
VS
Portland Trail Blazers logo
Portland Trail Blazers
23-28
135
Model expected score: Memphis Grizzlies 116.1 – Portland Trail Blazers 118.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut
POR
  • Ja MorantOut
  • Vit KrejciOut
  • Shaedon SharpeOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Blazers 58%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Blazers won by 20
COMBINED SCORE
250

Margin of Victory — Portland Trail Blazers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
45%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
11%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 250.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
77% over ✓23% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
58% over ✓42% under
O/U LINE 240
38% over ✓62% under
O/U LINE 250
20% over80% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ty JeromeSG
19.7
Ja MorantPG
19.5
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
19.2
Dariq WhiteheadSF
16.3
Santi AldamaPF
14.0
POR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Deni AvdijaSF
24.2
Shaedon SharpeSG
20.8
Jerami GrantPF
18.6
Jrue HolidayPG
16.3
Scoot HendersonPG
14.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MEM
115.30
18th / 30
Points
POR
115.63
16th / 30
MEM
45.66
8th / 30
Rebounds
POR
45.71
6th / 30
MEM
28.94
5th / 30
Assists
POR
24.38
28th / 30
MEM
101.07
6th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
POR
100.64
8th / 30
MEM
53.03%
23rd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
POR
52.81%
25th / 30
MEM
12.77%
22nd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
POR
13.81%
30th / 30
MEM
26.55%
11th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
POR
30.92%
2nd / 30
MEM
.257
19th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
POR
.285
9th / 30
MEM
114.07
25th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
POR
114.90
22nd / 30
MEM
116.11
16th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
POR
117.31
19th / 30
MEM
-2.04
20th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
POR
-2.41
21st / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.65%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.01%28th/30
13.3016th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.0513th/30
38.0912th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.645th/30
34.91%20th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.73%30th/30
27.8422nd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.4727th/30
52.0215th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.3728th/30
53.52%21st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.72%16th/30
18.5017th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.8410th/30
23.1720th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.636th/30
79.85%7th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.40%21st/30
11.8511th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.893rd/30
33.3211th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.5324th/30
7.8021st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.0519th/30
4.9912th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8316th/30
14.6822nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.2230th/30
19.7511th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.1016th/30
Opponent
46.61%13th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.33%20th/30
14.1923rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.8811th/30
39.4825th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.008th/30
35.94%16th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.77%13th/30
27.968th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.7020th/30
50.959th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.9518th/30
54.87%16th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.05%18th/30
17.6310th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.2822nd/30
22.267th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.2119th/30
79.20%21st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.64%23rd/30
11.7517th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.2527th/30
32.7915th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.035th/30
8.5716th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.7230th/30
5.0119th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.1130th/30
13.9916th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.459th/30
20.1013th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.8628th/30
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