IND99
FINAL
105MIL
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Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks — Win Probability

FINAL
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
13-38
99
VS
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
20-29
105
Model expected score: Indiana Pacers 113.8 – Milwaukee Bucks 117.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut
MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bucks 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Bucks won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
204

Margin of Victory — Milwaukee Bucks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
39%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
12%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 204.

O/U LINE 210
87% over13% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
73% over27% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
54% over46% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
33% over67% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
17% over83% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Pascal SiakamPF
24.0
Bennedict MathurinSF
17.8
Andrew NembhardPG
16.9
Aaron NesmithSF
13.8
Jarace WalkerPF
11.6
MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
27.6
Kevin Porter Jr.PG
17.4
Ryan RollinsPG
17.3
Kyle KuzmaPF
13.0
Myles TurnerC
11.9

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
IND
110.71
28th / 30
Points
MIL
112.00
27th / 30
IND
42.71
23rd / 30
Rebounds
MIL
41.02
28th / 30
IND
25.92
17th / 30
Assists
MIL
26.40
14th / 30
IND
100.38
11th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIL
97.81
22nd / 30
IND
51.79%
30th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIL
56.70%
3rd / 30
IND
11.97%
13th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIL
12.65%
21st / 30
IND
22.71%
26th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIL
20.43%
30th / 30
IND
.268
16th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIL
.231
27th / 30
IND
110.29
30th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
114.51
23rd / 30
IND
117.95
20th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
118.31
22nd / 30
IND
-7.66
26th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIL
-3.80
24th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
44.73%29th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.13%5th/30
12.5522nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.075th/30
36.4017th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.4211th/30
34.47%24th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.22%2nd/30
27.1826th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.2425th/30
52.4413th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.4826th/30
51.85%30th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.04%14th/30
18.2818th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
14.8330th/30
23.8116th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
20.2829th/30
76.75%24th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
73.08%30th/30
10.4822nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
8.8730th/30
32.0719th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0613th/30
7.3827th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.6125th/30
4.8515th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.1527th/30
13.5111th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.0318th/30
21.8028th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.6919th/30
Opponent
48.39%26th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.60%12th/30
11.381st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.6027th/30
32.991st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.6326th/30
34.49%3rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.84%25th/30
31.4830th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.426th/30
55.5829th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.558th/30
56.64%25th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.25%12th/30
20.8629th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.6724th/30
27.1729th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.2925th/30
76.80%3rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.77%10th/30
11.099th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.2910th/30
35.6730th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.5629th/30
7.575th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.4713th/30
4.589th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.194th/30
13.2021st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.7424th/30
20.5818th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
18.614th/30
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