MIA96
FINAL
98BOS
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Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics — Win Probability

FINAL
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
27-24
96
VS
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
33-18
98
Model expected score: Miami Heat 114.6 – Boston Celtics 120.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
BOS
Nothing on the report.

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Celtics 71%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Celtics won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
194

Margin of Victory — Boston Celtics (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
33%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+
15%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 194.

O/U LINE 210
91% over9% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
79% over21% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
61% over39% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Norman PowellSG
21.7
Tyler HerroSG
20.5
Bam AdebayoC
20.1
Andrew WigginsSF
15.4
Pelle LarssonSG
11.4
BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jaylen BrownSF
28.7
Jayson TatumPF
21.8
Payton PritchardPG
17.0
Derrick WhiteSG
16.5
Neemias QuetaC
10.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIA
119.45
4th / 30
Points
BOS
115.60
17th / 30
MIA
46.51
2nd / 30
Rebounds
BOS
45.40
9th / 30
MIA
28.62
8th / 30
Assists
BOS
23.88
29th / 30
MIA
103.62
1st / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
BOS
94.80
30th / 30
MIA
53.35%
20th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
BOS
55.26%
11th / 30
MIA
11.58%
8th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
BOS
10.21%
1st / 30
MIA
24.96%
19th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
BOS
29.33%
6th / 30
MIA
.260
18th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
BOS
.204
30th / 30
MIA
115.28
20th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BOS
121.94
2nd / 30
MIA
113.53
4th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BOS
114.31
10th / 30
MIA
+1.75
13th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
BOS
+7.63
3rd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.29%20th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.77%17th/30
12.7820th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
16.352nd/30
35.4722nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
44.752nd/30
36.04%13th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.54%10th/30
29.1512th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.6814th/30
55.128th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.5519th/30
52.89%25th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.65%9th/30
18.6316th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.5229th/30
23.5817th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
19.6230th/30
79.00%13th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.11%12th/30
11.3619th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.474th/30
33.5210th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.425th/30
8.7611th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.1118th/30
4.0229th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.547th/30
13.227th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.932nd/30
18.262nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.0622nd/30
Opponent
45.96%6th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.27%3rd/30
13.4216th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.7728th/30
38.4922nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.0029th/30
34.86%6th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.02%17th/30
27.979th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.683rd/30
51.5711th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.377th/30
54.24%11th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
50.99%2nd/30
17.336th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.6415th/30
21.493rd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.6315th/30
80.68%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.88%18th/30
11.5314th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.1524th/30
34.1626th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.4611th/30
7.9410th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.331st/30
5.1722nd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.488th/30
14.4210th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.4119th/30
19.477th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.518th/30
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