CHI107
FINAL
123TOR
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Chicago Bulls vs Toronto Raptors — Win Probability

FINAL
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
24-27
107
VS
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
30-21
123
Model expected score: Chicago Bulls 114.1 – Toronto Raptors 120.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day
TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Raptors 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Raptors won by 16
COMBINED SCORE
230

Margin of Victory — Toronto Raptors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
34%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
14%
Won by 21+
14%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 230.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
77% over ✓23% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
58% over42% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
38% over62% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
20% over80% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Coby WhiteSG
18.6
Collin SextonSG
17.5
Josh GiddeyPG
17.0
Nikola VučevićC
16.9
Matas BuzelisPF
16.3
TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon IngramSF
21.5
RJ BarrettSF
19.3
Scottie BarnesPF
18.1
Immanuel QuickleyPG
16.4
Jakob PoeltlC
10.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CHI
116.98
11th / 30
Points
TOR
113.98
22nd / 30
CHI
45.12
11th / 30
Rebounds
TOR
42.91
21st / 30
CHI
29.35
4th / 30
Assists
TOR
29.47
3rd / 30
CHI
101.25
5th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
TOR
98.46
20th / 30
CHI
55.37%
10th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
TOR
53.81%
18th / 30
CHI
12.06%
15th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
TOR
11.77%
9th / 30
CHI
23.04%
25th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
TOR
25.90%
14th / 30
CHI
.238
26th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
TOR
.254
21st / 30
CHI
115.53
19th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
TOR
115.77
16th / 30
CHI
118.72
24th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
TOR
114.16
8th / 30
CHI
-3.19
23rd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
TOR
+1.61
14th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.24%11th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.35%10th/30
14.518th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.7324th/30
39.439th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.0724th/30
36.80%8th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.42%25th/30
27.6523rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.293rd/30
49.8224th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
56.785th/30
55.51%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.11%12th/30
16.6926th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.9921st/30
21.2326th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.0521st/30
78.62%14th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.05%17th/30
10.0723rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.5015th/30
34.493rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.0818th/30
7.2028th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.6013th/30
4.9613th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.9214th/30
13.5211th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.4710th/30
18.201st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.3327th/30
Opponent
47.57%23rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.19%8th/30
13.7720th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.0314th/30
37.0217th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.8320th/30
37.20%27th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.45%2nd/30
29.9724th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.487th/30
54.9328th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.886th/30
54.56%14th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.09%19th/30
17.478th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.1026th/30
22.418th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.0823rd/30
77.97%11th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.14%29th/30
10.695th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.3311th/30
33.6223rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.9016th/30
8.5716th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.1812th/30
5.2823rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.3724th/30
11.6429th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.145th/30
18.423rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.7611th/30
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