CHI115
FINAL
131MIL
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Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks — Win Probability

FINAL
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
24-26
115
VS
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
18-29
131
Model expected score: Chicago Bulls 116.0 – Milwaukee Bucks 117.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day
MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bucks 55%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Bucks won by 16
COMBINED SCORE
246

Margin of Victory — Milwaukee Bucks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
46%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
10%
Won by 21+
8%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 246.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
76% over ✓24% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
57% over ✓43% under
O/U LINE 240
36% over ✓64% under
O/U LINE 250
19% over81% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Coby WhiteSG
18.6
Collin SextonSG
17.5
Josh GiddeyPG
17.0
Nikola VučevićC
16.9
Matas BuzelisPF
16.3
MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
27.6
Kevin Porter Jr.PG
17.4
Ryan RollinsPG
17.3
Kyle KuzmaPF
13.0
Myles TurnerC
11.9

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CHI
117.18
10th / 30
Points
MIL
111.54
27th / 30
CHI
45.25
9th / 30
Rebounds
MIL
40.83
29th / 30
CHI
29.39
3rd / 30
Assists
MIL
26.21
14th / 30
CHI
101.42
5th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIL
97.82
23rd / 30
CHI
55.38%
8th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIL
56.43%
4th / 30
CHI
12.03%
14th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIL
12.71%
21st / 30
CHI
22.88%
26th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIL
20.30%
30th / 30
CHI
.241
24th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIL
.237
27th / 30
CHI
115.54
16th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
114.03
23rd / 30
CHI
118.48
23rd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
118.20
22nd / 30
CHI
-2.94
23rd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIL
-4.17
24th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.29%11th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.88%6th/30
14.428th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.976th/30
39.199th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.1011th/30
36.80%8th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.30%2nd/30
27.7123rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.9626th/30
49.9024th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.4826th/30
55.52%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.50%15th/30
16.8626th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.1930th/30
21.4626th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
20.7928th/30
78.56%14th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
73.05%30th/30
10.0025th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
8.8430th/30
34.632nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.9113th/30
7.1528th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.7322nd/30
4.9712th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.2226th/30
13.4810th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.0816th/30
18.272nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.8319th/30
Opponent
47.41%21st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.61%14th/30
13.7520th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.4426th/30
37.0216th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.3825th/30
37.13%26th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.67%23rd/30
29.8323rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.627th/30
54.8927th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.869th/30
54.35%13th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.31%12th/30
17.579th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.6424th/30
22.568th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.2825th/30
77.89%11th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.67%8th/30
10.735th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4613th/30
33.7023rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.6929th/30
8.5316th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.4313th/30
5.2423rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.245th/30
11.6430th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.9124th/30
18.543rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
18.834th/30
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