LAL125
FINAL
109BKN
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Brooklyn Nets — Win Probability

FINAL
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
29-18
125
VS
Brooklyn Nets logo
Brooklyn Nets
13-35
109
Model expected score: Los Angeles Lakers 116.7 – Brooklyn Nets 112.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day
BKN
  • Mikel Brown Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Grant NelsonDay-To-Day
  • Egor DeminOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lakers 67%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Lakers won by 16
COMBINED SCORE
234

Margin of Victory — Brooklyn Nets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
62%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
11%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
4%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 234.

O/U LINE 210
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 220
68% over ✓32% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
48% over ✓52% under
O/U LINE 240
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
14% over86% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
33.5
Austin ReavesSG
23.3
LeBron JamesSF
20.9
Deandre AytonC
12.5
Rui HachimuraPF
11.5
BKN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Michael Porter Jr.SF
24.2
Cam ThomasSG
15.6
Noah ClowneyPF
12.3
Nic ClaxtonC
11.7
Egor DëminPG
10.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
LAL
116.31
13th / 30
Points
BKN
107.10
30th / 30
LAL
41.27
26th / 30
Rebounds
BKN
40.45
30th / 30
LAL
25.06
22nd / 30
Assists
BKN
25.22
20th / 30
LAL
97.91
21st / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
BKN
96.03
28th / 30
LAL
56.86%
2nd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
BKN
52.38%
28th / 30
LAL
12.84%
23rd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
BKN
13.39%
29th / 30
LAL
24.76%
21st / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
BKN
25.09%
18th / 30
LAL
.324
1st / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
BKN
.272
14th / 30
LAL
118.79
6th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BKN
111.53
27th / 30
LAL
118.66
24th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BKN
119.65
26th / 30
LAL
+0.13
16th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
BKN
-8.12
27th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
49.78%1st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.26%30th/30
12.1323rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.3710th/30
34.8123rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.103rd/30
34.85%21st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.12%27th/30
30.547th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.8229th/30
50.9021st/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.4429th/30
59.99%1st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.46%21st/30
21.322nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.7915th/30
27.781st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.0615th/30
76.74%24th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.09%18th/30
10.0723rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4815th/30
32.0819th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.6530th/30
8.4414th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.8420th/30
4.0628th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.4423rd/30
14.4219th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.3229th/30
19.305th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.8720th/30
Opponent
48.51%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.36%30th/30
14.0322nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.0114th/30
38.0420th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.303rd/30
36.88%24th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.92%30th/30
29.6220th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.0128th/30
51.9412th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.8726th/30
57.02%27th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.51%25th/30
17.347th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.6214th/30
21.994th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.8417th/30
78.86%19th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.07%14th/30
11.239th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.501st/30
30.604th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.2627th/30
9.0324th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.1826th/30
3.591st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.9518th/30
14.2412th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.3919th/30
21.8427th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.5117th/30
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