UTAH100
FINAL
107TOR
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Utah Jazz vs Toronto Raptors — Win Probability

FINAL
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
15-34
100
VS
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
29-20
107
Model expected score: Utah Jazz 114.3 – Toronto Raptors 123.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

UTAH
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out
TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Raptors 80%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Raptors won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
207

Margin of Victory — Toronto Raptors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
25%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
17%
Won by 21+
21%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 207.

O/U LINE 210
93% over7% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
83% over17% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
67% over33% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
46% over54% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
27% over73% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
13% over87% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Lauri MarkkanenPF
26.7
Keyonte GeorgePG
23.6
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
22.3
Brice SensabaughSF
14.9
Walker KesslerC
14.4
TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon IngramSF
21.5
RJ BarrettSF
19.3
Scottie BarnesPF
18.1
Immanuel QuickleyPG
16.4
Jakob PoeltlC
10.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
UTAH
118.02
6th / 30
Points
TOR
113.57
24th / 30
UTAH
43.80
16th / 30
Rebounds
TOR
43.10
21st / 30
UTAH
30.12
2nd / 30
Assists
TOR
29.33
4th / 30
UTAH
102.40
2nd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
TOR
98.50
20th / 30
UTAH
53.81%
17th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
TOR
53.46%
20th / 30
UTAH
13.17%
27th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
TOR
11.79%
9th / 30
UTAH
26.09%
13th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
TOR
26.00%
14th / 30
UTAH
.289
6th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
TOR
.255
19th / 30
UTAH
115.26
21st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
TOR
115.30
20th / 30
UTAH
124.03
30th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
TOR
113.91
8th / 30
UTAH
-8.77
28th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
TOR
+1.39
14th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.60%17th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.08%14th/30
12.7221st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.6125th/30
36.4917th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.1024th/30
34.85%20th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.03%28th/30
28.3419th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.173rd/30
51.6217th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
56.775th/30
54.90%13th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.91%12th/30
20.436th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.1420th/30
25.498th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.2119th/30
80.15%7th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.13%18th/30
11.4815th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.6113th/30
31.2926th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.1519th/30
7.6824th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.6213th/30
3.4430th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8415th/30
15.0626th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.5211th/30
21.3326th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.5227th/30
Opponent
49.14%29th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.12%9th/30
15.5130th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.8612th/30
41.0229th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.5418th/30
37.81%29th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.25%2nd/30
28.5812th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.436th/30
48.692nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.835th/30
58.68%30th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.05%19th/30
20.3527th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.4628th/30
26.0928th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.4026th/30
77.99%10th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.56%29th/30
11.4512th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.2510th/30
32.5413th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0318th/30
9.0624th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.1612th/30
5.8828th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.3924th/30
12.7025th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.235th/30
20.4515th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.8711th/30
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