MIA111
FINAL
102PHX
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Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns — Win Probability

FINAL
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
24-21
111
VS
Phoenix Suns logo
Phoenix Suns
27-17
102
Model expected score: Miami Heat 115.5 – Phoenix Suns 119.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
PHX
  • Jordan GoodwinOut
  • Mark WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Suns 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Heat won by 9
COMBINED SCORE
213

Margin of Victory — Phoenix Suns (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
39%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 213.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
78% over22% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
60% over40% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
39% over61% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Norman PowellSG
21.7
Tyler HerroSG
20.5
Bam AdebayoC
20.1
Andrew WigginsSF
15.4
Pelle LarssonSG
11.4
PHX
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Devin BookerSG
26.1
Dillon BrooksSF
20.2
Jalen GreenSG
17.8
Grayson AllenSG
16.5
Collin GillespiePG
12.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIA
119.74
3rd / 30
Points
PHX
114.15
23rd / 30
MIA
46.21
T-3rd / 30
Rebounds
PHX
43.41
20th / 30
MIA
28.57
7th / 30
Assists
PHX
25.00
23rd / 30
MIA
103.57
1st / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
PHX
97.94
25th / 30
MIA
53.46%
21st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
PHX
53.88%
18th / 30
MIA
11.59%
6th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
PHX
12.66%
18th / 30
MIA
25.19%
19th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
PHX
29.16%
6th / 30
MIA
.262
18th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
PHX
.233
29th / 30
MIA
115.62
19th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHX
116.55
14th / 30
MIA
113.97
6th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHX
114.11
8th / 30
MIA
+1.64
13th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
PHX
+2.44
10th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.35%20th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.89%25th/30
12.8818th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.726th/30
35.3522nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.668th/30
36.43%12th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.19%13th/30
29.1311th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.5923rd/30
55.288th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.5218th/30
52.69%29th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.55%21st/30
18.7116th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.2225th/30
23.7517th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.5126th/30
78.81%12th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.08%8th/30
11.4816th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.275th/30
33.1412th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.0528th/30
8.6910th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.432nd/30
4.1328th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.2425th/30
13.255th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.7421st/30
18.262nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.9728th/30
Opponent
46.17%6th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.69%14th/30
13.3316th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.475th/30
38.4422nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.877th/30
34.69%4th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.78%6th/30
28.2910th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.5011th/30
51.7110th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.8912th/30
54.71%15th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.92%17th/30
17.403rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.6922nd/30
21.492nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.9922nd/30
80.98%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.77%16th/30
11.6719th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.3629th/30
34.1026th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.2511th/30
8.0511th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.5016th/30
5.2222nd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.5310th/30
14.5010th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.543rd/30
19.688th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.8210th/30
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