MIA110
FINAL
127POR
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Miami Heat vs Portland Trail Blazers — Win Probability

FINAL
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
23-20
110
VS
Portland Trail Blazers logo
Portland Trail Blazers
22-22
127
Model expected score: Miami Heat 118.4 – Portland Trail Blazers 120.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
POR
  • Ja MorantOut
  • Vit KrejciOut
  • Shaedon SharpeOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Blazers 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Blazers won by 17
COMBINED SCORE
237

Margin of Victory — Portland Trail Blazers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
44%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
11%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 237.

O/U LINE 210
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 220
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 230
68% over ✓32% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
48% over52% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
13% over87% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Norman PowellSG
21.7
Tyler HerroSG
20.5
Bam AdebayoC
20.1
Andrew WigginsSF
15.4
Pelle LarssonSG
11.4
POR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Deni AvdijaSF
24.2
Shaedon SharpeSG
20.8
Jerami GrantPF
18.6
Jrue HolidayPG
16.3
Scoot HendersonPG
14.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIA
119.33
4th / 30
Points
POR
116.49
16th / 30
MIA
45.53
7th / 30
Rebounds
POR
45.33
8th / 30
MIA
28.60
7th / 30
Assists
POR
24.47
28th / 30
MIA
103.64
1st / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
POR
100.75
8th / 30
MIA
53.63%
21st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
POR
52.94%
22nd / 30
MIA
11.71%
7th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
POR
13.57%
30th / 30
MIA
24.37%
21st / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
POR
30.53%
3rd / 30
MIA
.258
19th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
POR
.297
4th / 30
MIA
115.14
22nd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
POR
115.63
20th / 30
MIA
114.29
7th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
POR
117.13
18th / 30
MIA
+0.86
14th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
POR
-1.50
21st / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.52%19th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.11%28th/30
12.8420th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.0313th/30
35.1422nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.365th/30
36.55%12th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.92%30th/30
29.1611th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.3828th/30
55.158th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.2228th/30
52.88%26th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.71%17th/30
18.2918th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.786th/30
23.2619th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.654th/30
78.62%14th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.98%20th/30
11.0420th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.633rd/30
32.8913th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.3726th/30
8.7310th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.0319th/30
4.1228th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7416th/30
13.347th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.9030th/30
18.161st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.7118th/30
Opponent
46.35%10th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.15%18th/30
13.6219th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.465th/30
38.8324th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.766th/30
35.06%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.86%7th/30
28.099th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.7621st/30
51.1410th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.7818th/30
54.93%16th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.33%22nd/30
17.264th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.2326th/30
21.272nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.1923rd/30
81.15%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.30%28th/30
11.5818th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.2026th/30
34.2627th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.015th/30
8.0810th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.5430th/30
5.0820th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.1830th/30
14.629th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.4910th/30
19.477th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.4130th/30
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