MIA112
FINAL
135GS
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Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors — Win Probability

FINAL
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
22-19
112
VS
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
24-19
135
Model expected score: Miami Heat 115.2 – Golden State Warriors 121.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Warriors 72%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Warriors won by 23
COMBINED SCORE
247

Margin of Victory — Golden State Warriors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
33%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
15%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 247.

O/U LINE 210
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 220
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 230
64% over ✓36% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
43% over ✓57% under
O/U LINE 250
24% over76% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
11% over89% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Norman PowellSG
21.7
Tyler HerroSG
20.5
Bam AdebayoC
20.1
Andrew WigginsSF
15.4
Pelle LarssonSG
11.4
GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
26.6
Jimmy ButlerSF
20.0
Kristaps PorziņģisC
16.1
Brandin PodziemskiSG
13.8
De'Anthony MeltonPG
12.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIA
119.30
5th / 30
Points
GS
116.66
15th / 30
MIA
45.65
6th / 30
Rebounds
GS
43.18
21st / 30
MIA
28.53
8th / 30
Assists
GS
28.77
6th / 30
MIA
103.69
1st / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
GS
99.43
19th / 30
MIA
53.58%
20th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
GS
55.44%
7th / 30
MIA
11.76%
8th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
GS
13.05%
25th / 30
MIA
24.33%
21st / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
GS
25.50%
17th / 30
MIA
.259
19th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
GS
.249
22nd / 30
MIA
115.06
22nd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
GS
117.33
13th / 30
MIA
114.07
6th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
GS
113.90
4th / 30
MIA
+0.99
14th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
GS
+3.43
8th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.50%21st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.23%22nd/30
12.7620th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
16.462nd/30
34.8123rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
44.802nd/30
36.66%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.73%8th/30
29.1612th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.8530th/30
55.338th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
44.5530th/30
52.70%27th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.77%10th/30
18.4617th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.2619th/30
23.3717th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.2624th/30
78.98%14th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.03%3rd/30
10.9720th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.2918th/30
33.0612th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.1418th/30
8.7210th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.554th/30
4.1727th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.5021st/30
13.398th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.8823rd/30
18.482nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.0713th/30
Opponent
46.17%6th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.84%17th/30
13.5517th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.436th/30
38.8224th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.987th/30
34.89%8th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.56%5th/30
28.0110th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.6219th/30
51.1810th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.8117th/30
54.73%16th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.06%19th/30
17.405th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.354th/30
21.492nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.834th/30
81.00%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.48%22nd/30
11.6218th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.7519th/30
34.1127th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.9818th/30
8.1011th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.3413th/30
5.1121st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.023rd/30
14.569th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.135th/30
19.547th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.416th/30
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