OKC120
FINAL
122MIA
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat — Win Probability

FINAL
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
34-6
120
VS
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
21-19
122
Model expected score: Oklahoma City Thunder 120.4 – Miami Heat 114.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut
MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 72%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Heat won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
242

Margin of Victory — Miami Heat (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
67%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 242.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 240
39% over ✓61% under
O/U LINE 250
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
31.1
Chet HolmgrenPF
17.1
Jalen WilliamsSG
17.1
Ajay MitchellSG
13.6
Aaron WigginsSG
9.4
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Norman PowellSG
21.7
Tyler HerroSG
20.5
Bam AdebayoC
20.1
Andrew WigginsSF
15.4
Pelle LarssonSG
11.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
OKC
121.07
2nd / 30
Points
MIA
119.48
5th / 30
OKC
43.95
17th / 30
Rebounds
MIA
45.45
6th / 30
OKC
25.60
17th / 30
Assists
MIA
28.50
T-8th / 30
OKC
100.45
13th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIA
103.65
1st / 30
OKC
56.36%
5th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIA
53.78%
19th / 30
OKC
10.47%
2nd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIA
11.69%
7th / 30
OKC
21.53%
29th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIA
24.03%
21st / 30
OKC
.271
16th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIA
.260
19th / 30
OKC
120.53
5th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
115.27
22nd / 30
OKC
107.57
1st / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
113.73
4th / 30
OKC
+12.97
1st / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIA
+1.54
13th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
49.00%3rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.68%17th/30
13.1317th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.7720th/30
36.6518th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.6223rd/30
35.82%14th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.89%8th/30
30.567th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.2611th/30
52.5113th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
55.438th/30
58.20%2nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.80%27th/30
20.0310th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.4218th/30
24.1716th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.3819th/30
82.85%2nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.78%14th/30
9.0829th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.7720th/30
34.682nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0812th/30
10.073rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.808th/30
5.864th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.2326th/30
11.671st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.285th/30
20.2614th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
18.512nd/30
Opponent
43.16%1st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.04%5th/30
14.4526th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.3215th/30
38.5722nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.5923rd/30
37.45%27th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.52%5th/30
23.271st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.1210th/30
48.812nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.4110th/30
47.68%1st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.69%14th/30
17.696th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.535th/30
23.3110th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.622nd/30
75.87%2nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.08%30th/30
11.8522nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.7219th/30
33.0821st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.0727th/30
7.202nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.0411th/30
4.034th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.1722nd/30
16.811st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.618th/30
21.2121st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.628th/30
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