CLE117
FINAL
115PHI
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers — Win Probability

FINAL
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
23-19
117
VS
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
22-17
115
Model expected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 117.9 – Philadelphia 76ers 119.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut
PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
76ers 56%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Cavaliers won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
232

Margin of Victory — Philadelphia 76ers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
45%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 232.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 230
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
45% over55% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
12% over88% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
27.9
James HardenPG
20.5
Evan MobleyPF
18.2
Darius GarlandPG
18.0
Jarrett AllenC
15.4
PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
28.3
Joel EmbiidC
26.9
Paul GeorgePF
17.3
VJ EdgecombeSG
16.0
Kelly Oubre Jr.SF
14.1

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CLE
120.00
3rd / 30
Points
PHI
116.80
13th / 30
CLE
44.35
14th / 30
Rebounds
PHI
44.13
16th / 30
CLE
28.81
6th / 30
Assists
PHI
24.52
28th / 30
CLE
101.05
8th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
PHI
100.44
13th / 30
CLE
55.45%
9th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
PHI
52.76%
25th / 30
CLE
11.77%
9th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
PHI
11.74%
8th / 30
CLE
26.47%
11th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
PHI
27.12%
9th / 30
CLE
.248
23rd / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
PHI
.280
10th / 30
CLE
118.75
8th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHI
116.29
15th / 30
CLE
116.17
14th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHI
115.14
13th / 30
CLE
+2.58
10th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
PHI
+1.14
15th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.27%11th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.46%26th/30
14.916th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.2215th/30
41.495th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.1117th/30
35.94%13th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.61%16th/30
28.1719th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.9321st/30
49.6424th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.3910th/30
56.75%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.31%29th/30
17.6724th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.786th/30
22.6524th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.3111th/30
78.05%18th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.10%3rd/30
11.8112th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.279th/30
32.0818th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.6623rd/30
8.7010th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.6411th/30
5.0610th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.122nd/30
13.4910th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.5212th/30
20.3415th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.4617th/30
Opponent
46.59%12th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.51%11th/30
13.9020th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.325th/30
36.2712th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.9910th/30
38.32%30th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.23%3rd/30
27.395th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.5218th/30
52.3614th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.9620th/30
52.31%4th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.70%16th/30
19.7023rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.1416th/30
24.5619th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.2917th/30
80.22%26th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.79%17th/30
11.4114th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.7721st/30
32.7915th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.9818th/30
8.5817th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.425th/30
4.448th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.1321st/30
14.776th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.4610th/30
19.9811th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.5815th/30
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