MIA112
FINAL
124OKC
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Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder — Win Probability

FINAL
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
20-17
112
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
31-6
124
Model expected score: Miami Heat 112.5 – Oklahoma City Thunder 122.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 82%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Thunder won by 12
COMBINED SCORE
236

Margin of Victory — Oklahoma City Thunder (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
24%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
19%
Won by 15-21
17%
Won by 21+
22%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 236.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 240
39% over61% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Norman PowellSG
21.7
Tyler HerroSG
20.5
Bam AdebayoC
20.1
Andrew WigginsSF
15.4
Pelle LarssonSG
11.4
OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
31.1
Chet HolmgrenPF
17.1
Jalen WilliamsSG
17.1
Ajay MitchellSG
13.6
Aaron WigginsSG
9.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIA
119.36
6th / 30
Points
OKC
121.40
2nd / 30
MIA
45.56
7th / 30
Rebounds
OKC
43.92
18th / 30
MIA
28.56
7th / 30
Assists
OKC
25.68
17th / 30
MIA
104.09
1st / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
OKC
100.70
13th / 30
MIA
53.88%
18th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
OKC
56.20%
5th / 30
MIA
12.01%
13th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
OKC
10.40%
2nd / 30
MIA
23.64%
23rd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
OKC
21.97%
29th / 30
MIA
.259
19th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
OKC
.270
16th / 30
MIA
114.67
23rd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
OKC
120.56
5th / 30
MIA
113.09
3rd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
OKC
107.62
1st / 30
MIA
+1.58
14th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
OKC
+12.93
1st / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.89%16th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.89%3rd/30
12.5121st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.0817th/30
33.9224th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.8218th/30
36.89%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.54%16th/30
29.4111th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.665th/30
55.508th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.6613th/30
53.00%26th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.23%2nd/30
18.3020th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.9910th/30
23.1819th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.1815th/30
78.96%13th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.65%2nd/30
10.5221st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.3129th/30
33.2511th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.313rd/30
8.899th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.333rd/30
4.3424th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.567th/30
13.6012th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.621st/30
18.301st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.2810th/30
Opponent
45.97%5th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.72%1st/30
13.3015th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.5026th/30
38.5321st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.6122nd/30
34.53%5th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.56%28th/30
28.019th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
23.211st/30
51.3410th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.641st/30
54.56%14th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
48.72%1st/30
17.173rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.706th/30
21.383rd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.2910th/30
80.30%27th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.01%2nd/30
11.5518th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.3210th/30
33.9727th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0721st/30
8.1811th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.202nd/30
5.2522nd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.973rd/30
14.718th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.301st/30
19.486th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.3020th/30
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