MIL105
FINAL
101LAL
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Milwaukee Bucks vs Los Angeles Lakers — Win Probability

FINAL
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
16-21
105
VS
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
23-11
101
Model expected score: Milwaukee Bucks 115.1 – Los Angeles Lakers 118.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day
LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lakers 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Bucks won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
206

Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Lakers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
40%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 206.

O/U LINE 210
89% over11% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
76% over24% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
57% over43% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
19% over81% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
27.6
Kevin Porter Jr.PG
17.4
Ryan RollinsPG
17.3
Kyle KuzmaPF
13.0
Myles TurnerC
11.9
LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
33.5
Austin ReavesSG
23.3
LeBron JamesSF
20.9
Deandre AytonC
12.5
Rui HachimuraPF
11.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIL
113.11
26th / 30
Points
LAL
115.92
17th / 30
MIL
40.47
T-28th / 30
Rebounds
LAL
41.39
26th / 30
MIL
26.16
15th / 30
Assists
LAL
24.94
T-24th / 30
MIL
98.19
24th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
LAL
98.31
23rd / 30
MIL
57.21%
2nd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
LAL
56.57%
3rd / 30
MIL
13.02%
22nd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
LAL
13.41%
28th / 30
MIL
20.53%
30th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
LAL
25.17%
19th / 30
MIL
.243
27th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
LAL
.332
1st / 30
MIL
115.19
22nd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAL
117.90
9th / 30
MIL
117.38
18th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAL
118.24
20th / 30
MIL
-2.20
21st / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
LAL
-0.34
17th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.63%4th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.57%2nd/30
14.935th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.8925th/30
37.8112th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.8122nd/30
39.48%2nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.17%24th/30
27.3924th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.1810th/30
49.2025th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.0723rd/30
55.66%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
60.27%1st/30
15.6230th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.872nd/30
21.1228th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.201st/30
73.98%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.56%23rd/30
8.7430th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.2323rd/30
32.4815th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.8722nd/30
7.9621st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.4215th/30
4.1327th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.0428th/30
14.4217th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.0624th/30
21.3620th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.4014th/30
Opponent
46.60%14th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.57%27th/30
14.0422nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.6720th/30
38.7523rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.1517th/30
36.24%19th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.81%22nd/30
27.506th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.3819th/30
50.389th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.5111th/30
54.57%12th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.05%26th/30
20.2626th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.4512th/30
26.1627th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.259th/30
77.46%5th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.34%20th/30
11.3612th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.025th/30
33.8226th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.403rd/30
8.5215th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.3826th/30
4.104th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.701st/30
13.5322nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.897th/30
19.355th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.8029th/30
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