HOU105
FINAL
111POR
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Houston Rockets vs Portland Trail Blazers — Win Probability

FINAL
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
22-12
105
VS
Portland Trail Blazers logo
Portland Trail Blazers
18-20
111
Model expected score: Houston Rockets 119.3 – Portland Trail Blazers 116.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut
POR
  • Ja MorantOut
  • Vit KrejciOut
  • Shaedon SharpeOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Rockets 62%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Blazers won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
216

Margin of Victory — Portland Trail Blazers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
59%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
7%
Won by 21+
4%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 216.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
79% over21% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
61% over39% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Kevin DurantSF
26.0
Alperen ŞengünC
20.4
Amen ThompsonPG
18.3
Jabari Smith Jr.PF
15.8
Reed SheppardSG
13.5
POR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Deni AvdijaSF
24.2
Shaedon SharpeSG
20.8
Jerami GrantPF
18.6
Jrue HolidayPG
16.3
Scoot HendersonPG
14.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
HOU
118.49
10th / 30
Points
POR
116.36
15th / 30
HOU
49.26
1st / 30
Rebounds
POR
45.31
8th / 30
HOU
25.20
21st / 30
Assists
POR
24.77
27th / 30
HOU
96.93
27th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
POR
100.85
10th / 30
HOU
54.72%
13th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
POR
52.52%
27th / 30
HOU
12.70%
18th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
POR
13.47%
29th / 30
HOU
37.84%
1st / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
POR
30.81%
3rd / 30
HOU
.272
15th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
POR
.301
4th / 30
HOU
122.24
3rd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
POR
115.38
21st / 30
HOU
114.25
8th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
POR
117.74
19th / 30
HOU
+7.99
2nd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
POR
-2.36
22nd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.29%5th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.71%28th/30
12.0623rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.0311th/30
32.1026th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.166th/30
37.56%4th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.10%26th/30
33.221st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.1427th/30
61.671st/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.6927th/30
53.87%21st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.68%22nd/30
19.6313th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.004th/30
25.478th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.004th/30
77.08%24th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.78%19th/30
16.921st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.983rd/30
33.906th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.9427th/30
9.026th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.8622nd/30
5.814th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7516th/30
15.2728th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.8430th/30
20.3412th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.5624th/30
Opponent
46.19%8th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.09%17th/30
13.1214th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.154th/30
36.9115th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.755th/30
35.54%14th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.97%7th/30
28.5612th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.0524th/30
53.3217th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.8727th/30
53.57%7th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.77%17th/30
17.776th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.1828th/30
23.5813th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.4728th/30
75.37%1st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.02%25th/30
11.209th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.6629th/30
27.801st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.406th/30
9.5227th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.5030th/30
4.7516th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.3330th/30
13.6519th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.4211th/30
21.7825th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.9830th/30
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