LAL91
FINAL
107SA
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Los Angeles Lakers vs San Antonio Spurs — Win Probability

FINAL
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
23-10
91
VS
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
23-11
107
Model expected score: Los Angeles Lakers 116.0 – San Antonio Spurs 120.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day
SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Spurs 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Spurs won by 16
COMBINED SCORE
198

Margin of Victory — San Antonio Spurs (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
38%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
13%
Won by 21+
12%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 198.

O/U LINE 210
91% over9% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
80% over20% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
63% over37% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
42% over58% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
24% over76% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
11% over89% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
33.5
Austin ReavesSG
23.3
LeBron JamesSF
20.9
Deandre AytonC
12.5
Rui HachimuraPF
11.5
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
25.0
De'Aaron FoxPG
18.6
Stephon CastlePG
16.7
Devin VassellSG
13.9
Julian ChampagnieSF
11.1

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
LAL
116.34
17th / 30
Points
SA
118.84
9th / 30
LAL
41.29
26th / 30
Rebounds
SA
46.45
2nd / 30
LAL
24.86
25th / 30
Assists
SA
26.00
16th / 30
LAL
98.52
23rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
SA
99.93
17th / 30
LAL
56.75%
3rd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
SA
54.78%
12th / 30
LAL
13.47%
28th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
SA
11.67%
6th / 30
LAL
24.95%
20th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
SA
26.84%
12th / 30
LAL
.338
1st / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
SA
.291
8th / 30
LAL
118.09
9th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
118.92
6th / 30
LAL
118.32
21st / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
113.68
6th / 30
LAL
-0.23
16th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
SA
+5.24
7th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
49.78%2nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.53%9th/30
11.7725th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.9819th/30
34.6822nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.1017th/30
33.95%27th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.99%20th/30
30.289th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.6011th/30
49.7923rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.4814th/30
60.80%1st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.40%7th/30
22.211st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.787th/30
28.541st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.107th/30
77.85%19th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.62%9th/30
10.0626th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.9012th/30
31.8422nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.582nd/30
8.3816th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.0320th/30
4.1528th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.6917th/30
15.1125th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.357th/30
20.3612th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.334th/30
Opponent
48.58%26th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.20%9th/30
13.6921st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.4016th/30
37.1517th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.1016th/30
36.85%23rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.12%19th/30
29.4118th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.3310th/30
51.5611th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.2516th/30
57.03%26th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.21%6th/30
18.4411th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.801st/30
23.237th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.623rd/30
79.40%19th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.71%5th/30
10.965th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.561st/30
30.283rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.4413th/30
9.3426th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.879th/30
3.711st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.216th/30
14.827th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.3023rd/30
22.9429th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.5722nd/30
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