DEN114
FINAL
110BOS
← back to predictions

Denver Nuggets vs Boston Celtics — Win Probability

FINAL
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
24-12
114
VS
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
23-12
110
Model expected score: Denver Nuggets 116.5 – Boston Celtics 122.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut
BOS
Nothing on the report.

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Celtics 68%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Nuggets won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
224

Margin of Victory — Boston Celtics (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
35%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+
14%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 224.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 230
68% over32% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
47% over53% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
27% over73% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
13% over87% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
27.7
Jamal MurrayPG
25.4
Aaron GordonPF
16.2
Peyton WatsonSF
14.6
Cameron JohnsonSF
12.2
BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jaylen BrownSF
28.7
Jayson TatumPF
21.8
Payton PritchardPG
17.0
Derrick WhiteSG
16.5
Neemias QuetaC
10.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DEN
124.08
1st / 30
Points
BOS
117.56
13th / 30
DEN
43.16
23rd / 30
Rebounds
BOS
44.36
16th / 30
DEN
29.08
5th / 30
Assists
BOS
23.81
29th / 30
DEN
99.03
20th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
BOS
94.93
30th / 30
DEN
58.72%
1st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
BOS
56.07%
5th / 30
DEN
11.10%
3rd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
BOS
10.09%
1st / 30
DEN
24.78%
21st / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
BOS
29.93%
5th / 30
DEN
.287
10th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
BOS
.212
30th / 30
DEN
125.30
1st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BOS
123.83
2nd / 30
DEN
119.21
25th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BOS
116.46
15th / 30
DEN
+6.09
5th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
BOS
+7.37
3rd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
50.66%1st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.35%11th/30
14.339th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
16.771st/30
35.4820th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
45.471st/30
40.38%1st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.87%8th/30
30.705th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.7313th/30
53.4110th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.6221st/30
57.49%3rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.76%4th/30
20.916th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.0629th/30
25.529th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
20.3930th/30
81.93%3rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.77%13th/30
10.1524th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.555th/30
33.437th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.1811th/30
7.0428th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.5115th/30
4.0729th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.716th/30
12.503rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.792nd/30
19.435th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.3028th/30
Opponent
47.20%17th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.03%3rd/30
13.5918th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.1030th/30
38.3420th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.5829th/30
35.44%12th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.20%25th/30
29.8621st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.633rd/30
53.7120th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.866th/30
55.59%23rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.41%3rd/30
18.7213th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.9022nd/30
23.9913th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.9921st/30
78.04%10th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.63%21st/30
11.9023rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.2626th/30
30.815th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.728th/30
7.758th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
5.821st/30
4.7216th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.429th/30
12.0428th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.0716th/30
21.9226th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.879th/30
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service