ATL117
FINAL
134TOR
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Atlanta Hawks vs Toronto Raptors — Win Probability

FINAL
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
17-19
117
VS
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
20-14
134
Model expected score: Atlanta Hawks 115.5 – Toronto Raptors 119.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut
TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Raptors 67%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Raptors won by 17
COMBINED SCORE
251

Margin of Victory — Toronto Raptors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
38%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
13%
Won by 21+
12%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 251.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 230
61% over ✓39% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
40% over ✓60% under
O/U LINE 250
22% over ✓78% under
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen JohnsonSF
22.5
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerSG
20.8
Trae YoungPG
19.3
CJ McCollumPG
18.7
Kristaps PorziņģisC
17.1
TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon IngramSF
21.5
RJ BarrettSF
19.3
Scottie BarnesPF
18.1
Immanuel QuickleyPG
16.4
Jakob PoeltlC
10.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
ATL
118.97
9th / 30
Points
TOR
114.39
23rd / 30
ATL
41.62
25th / 30
Rebounds
TOR
43.36
22nd / 30
ATL
31.27
1st / 30
Assists
TOR
29.28
4th / 30
ATL
101.97
5th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
TOR
98.89
22nd / 30
ATL
56.14%
6th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
TOR
54.01%
19th / 30
ATL
12.34%
16th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
TOR
12.07%
13th / 30
ATL
22.47%
27th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
TOR
25.87%
15th / 30
ATL
.243
26th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
TOR
.249
25th / 30
ATL
116.68
14th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
TOR
115.68
19th / 30
ATL
117.60
17th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
TOR
113.91
4th / 30
ATL
-0.93
18th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
TOR
+1.77
12th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.18%7th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.42%11th/30
14.159th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.9724th/30
37.9014th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.1023rd/30
37.34%5th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.09%20th/30
28.7114th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.075th/30
51.0518th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
56.665th/30
56.23%8th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.83%13th/30
16.8027th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.6424th/30
21.6028th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.6425th/30
77.79%22nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.92%20th/30
9.7027th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4615th/30
31.1225th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.3916th/30
9.016th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.7411th/30
4.6418th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.5519th/30
13.8616th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.8214th/30
19.858th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.8025th/30
Opponent
47.64%23rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.28%8th/30
13.0914th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.7811th/30
36.7415th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.4519th/30
35.64%12th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.13%3rd/30
29.3918th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.617th/30
52.4514th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.836th/30
56.04%25th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.41%21st/30
19.5318th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.3425th/30
24.2814th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.3924th/30
80.46%26th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.09%25th/30
11.8722nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4313th/30
33.4823rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.8416th/30
8.9622nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.4813th/30
4.6114th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.6526th/30
14.539th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.234th/30
18.712nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.928th/30
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