SAC102
FINAL
129PHX
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Sacramento Kings vs Phoenix Suns — Win Probability

FINAL
Sacramento Kings logo
Sacramento Kings
8-26
102
VS
Phoenix Suns logo
Phoenix Suns
19-13
129
Model expected score: Sacramento Kings 110.4 – Phoenix Suns 122.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

SAC
  • Maxime RaynaudOut
  • Keegan MurrayDay-To-Day
  • Domantas SabonisDay-To-Day
  • Ben SimmonsOut
PHX
  • Jordan GoodwinOut
  • Mark WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Suns 87%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Suns won by 27
COMBINED SCORE
231

Margin of Victory — Phoenix Suns (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
19%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
28%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 231.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
76% over ✓24% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
57% over ✓43% under
O/U LINE 240
36% over64% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
19% over81% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

SAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zach LaVineSG
19.2
DeMar DeRozanPF
18.4
Domantas SabonisC
15.8
Russell WestbrookSF
15.2
Keegan MurrayPF
14.0
PHX
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Devin BookerSG
26.1
Dillon BrooksSF
20.2
Jalen GreenSG
17.8
Grayson AllenSG
16.5
Collin GillespiePG
12.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
SAC
110.63
28th / 30
Points
PHX
115.47
20th / 30
SAC
40.74
27th / 30
Rebounds
PHX
43.18
23rd / 30
SAC
25.29
22nd / 30
Assists
PHX
25.38
20th / 30
SAC
100.89
10th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
PHX
98.67
23rd / 30
SAC
51.97%
28th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
PHX
54.41%
14th / 30
SAC
12.30%
15th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
PHX
13.00%
22nd / 30
SAC
23.07%
26th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
PHX
29.60%
5th / 30
SAC
.262
21st / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
PHX
.237
29th / 30
SAC
109.66
29th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHX
117.02
12th / 30
SAC
121.38
27th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHX
114.94
11th / 30
SAC
-11.72
30th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
PHX
+2.09
11th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.00%23rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.65%18th/30
10.5629th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.228th/30
30.3330th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.208th/30
34.83%23rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.27%13th/30
30.1910th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.5316th/30
58.264th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.4314th/30
51.82%28th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.41%16th/30
17.5924th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.3226th/30
23.1722nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.7027th/30
75.92%27th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.81%9th/30
10.3123rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.175th/30
30.0829th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.5827th/30
8.958th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.971st/30
4.2825th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.3524th/30
13.8515th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.1125th/30
20.319th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.5027th/30
Opponent
49.90%30th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.16%17th/30
12.8912th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.648th/30
35.8310th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.539th/30
35.97%16th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.57%10th/30
31.5230th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.4410th/30
53.1616th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.5712th/30
59.30%29th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.14%19th/30
19.6819th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.1522nd/30
25.3222nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.5123rd/30
77.74%6th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.97%15th/30
11.3011th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.1326th/30
34.3829th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.337th/30
9.0123rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.8820th/30
5.2121st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8318th/30
14.0217th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.752nd/30
19.143rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.249th/30
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