CHA121
FINAL
122MIL
← back to predictions

Charlotte Hornets vs Milwaukee Bucks — Win Probability

FINAL
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
11-22
121
VS
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
14-20
122
Model expected score: Charlotte Hornets 116.0 – Milwaukee Bucks 119.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut
MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bucks 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Bucks won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
243

Margin of Victory — Milwaukee Bucks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
41%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 243.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 230
61% over ✓39% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
40% over ✓60% under
O/U LINE 250
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon MillerSF
20.2
LaMelo BallPG
20.1
Kon KnueppelSF
18.5
Miles BridgesPF
17.1
Collin SextonSG
14.2
MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
27.6
Kevin Porter Jr.PG
17.4
Ryan RollinsPG
17.3
Kyle KuzmaPF
13.0
Myles TurnerC
11.9

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CHA
115.94
19th / 30
Points
MIL
113.29
26th / 30
CHA
44.32
16th / 30
Rebounds
MIL
40.29
29th / 30
CHA
26.53
T-12th / 30
Assists
MIL
26.26
14th / 30
CHA
99.13
21st / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIL
98.51
25th / 30
CHA
54.13%
18th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIL
57.29%
2nd / 30
CHA
12.91%
20th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIL
13.04%
24th / 30
CHA
28.17%
7th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIL
20.29%
30th / 30
CHA
.265
18th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIL
.242
28th / 30
CHA
116.96
13th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
115.00
22nd / 30
CHA
120.07
26th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
117.79
18th / 30
CHA
-3.12
21st / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIL
-2.78
20th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.71%25th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.60%5th/30
15.194th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.115th/30
41.395th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.9411th/30
36.70%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.83%3rd/30
26.0228th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.1223rd/30
48.7827th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.9625th/30
53.35%25th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.39%11th/30
19.3416th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.4330th/30
23.8817th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.0029th/30
80.99%6th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
73.48%30th/30
11.9311th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
8.6130th/30
32.7813th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.2816th/30
7.0929th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.1219th/30
4.7815th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.2326th/30
14.9223rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.4217th/30
19.586th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.6122nd/30
Opponent
48.97%28th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.74%15th/30
13.8020th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.1023rd/30
35.407th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.8123rd/30
38.98%30th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.32%19th/30
30.7727th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.476th/30
55.6029th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.128th/30
55.34%21st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.80%15th/30
17.152nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.5627th/30
21.181st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.4527th/30
80.95%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.74%7th/30
10.502nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4612th/30
30.414th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.8526th/30
8.3412th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.5015th/30
4.3610th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.186th/30
12.7025th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.7519th/30
21.5420th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.294th/30
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service