DEN126
FINAL
127ORL
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Denver Nuggets vs Orlando Magic — Win Probability

FINAL
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
22-8
126
VS
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
16-13
127
Model expected score: Denver Nuggets 121.4 – Orlando Magic 118.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut
ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nuggets 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Magic won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
253

Margin of Victory — Orlando Magic (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
59%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
7%
Won by 21+
5%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 253.

O/U LINE 210
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 220
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 230
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
49% over ✓51% under
O/U LINE 250
29% over ✓71% under
O/U LINE 260
14% over86% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
27.7
Jamal MurrayPG
25.4
Aaron GordonPF
16.2
Peyton WatsonSF
14.6
Cameron JohnsonSF
12.2
ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
22.2
Franz WagnerSF
20.6
Desmond BaneSG
20.1
Anthony BlackPG
15.0
Jalen SuggsPG
13.8

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DEN
125.81
1st / 30
Points
ORL
117.09
13th / 30
DEN
44.26
16th / 30
Rebounds
ORL
44.59
14th / 30
DEN
29.74
3rd / 30
Assists
ORL
25.97
16th / 30
DEN
99.56
19th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
ORL
100.34
14th / 30
DEN
59.28%
1st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
ORL
53.13%
23rd / 30
DEN
11.40%
4th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
ORL
11.76%
9th / 30
DEN
25.86%
16th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
ORL
27.04%
T-11th / 30
DEN
.287
9th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
ORL
.324
2nd / 30
DEN
126.36
1st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ORL
116.70
12th / 30
DEN
118.06
20th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ORL
114.95
11th / 30
DEN
+8.29
3rd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
ORL
+1.74
12th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
51.30%1st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.77%18th/30
14.199th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.2726th/30
34.8621st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.9525th/30
40.71%1st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.22%26th/30
31.363rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.159th/30
53.949th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
55.628th/30
58.14%2nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.20%19th/30
21.066th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.581st/30
25.4712th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.722nd/30
82.70%3rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.63%16th/30
10.5321st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.9612th/30
33.925th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.4815th/30
7.2327th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.2818th/30
3.8228th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.209th/30
12.863rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.499th/30
19.474th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.4020th/30
Opponent
47.23%16th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.87%23rd/30
13.0214th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.712nd/30
37.5519th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.301st/30
34.69%7th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.26%17th/30
30.0324th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.3026th/30
53.6218th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
55.4728th/30
56.01%23rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.63%14th/30
18.9214th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.2216th/30
24.1412th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.7918th/30
78.39%14th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.51%7th/30
11.1110th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.815th/30
30.204th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.2713th/30
7.849th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.546th/30
4.4413th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.2923rd/30
11.9929th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.6411th/30
21.9024th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.6127th/30
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