MIL104
FINAL
125MEM
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Milwaukee Bucks vs Memphis Grizzlies — Win Probability

FINAL
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
12-18
104
VS
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
14-16
125
Model expected score: Milwaukee Bucks 114.1 – Memphis Grizzlies 118.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day
MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Grizzlies 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Grizzlies won by 21
COMBINED SCORE
229

Margin of Victory — Memphis Grizzlies (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
38%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
13%
Won by 21+
12%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 229.

O/U LINE 210
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 220
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
55% over45% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
35% over65% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
27.6
Kevin Porter Jr.PG
17.4
Ryan RollinsPG
17.3
Kyle KuzmaPF
13.0
Myles TurnerC
11.9
MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ty JeromeSG
19.7
Ja MorantPG
19.5
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
19.2
Dariq WhiteheadSF
16.3
Santi AldamaPF
14.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIL
112.74
26th / 30
Points
MEM
115.35
19th / 30
MIL
40.26
30th / 30
Rebounds
MEM
46.10
4th / 30
MIL
26.23
13th / 30
Assists
MEM
29.13
6th / 30
MIL
98.84
22nd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MEM
101.08
9th / 30
MIL
57.21%
2nd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MEM
52.98%
24th / 30
MIL
13.39%
26th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MEM
12.64%
18th / 30
MIL
20.14%
30th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MEM
25.73%
16th / 30
MIL
.241
29th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MEM
.271
18th / 30
MIL
114.07
25th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MEM
114.12
24th / 30
MIL
117.82
20th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MEM
114.60
9th / 30
MIL
-3.75
22nd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MEM
-0.48
16th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.53%5th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.52%24th/30
15.015th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.3418th/30
37.9212th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.9411th/30
39.59%3rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.16%20th/30
26.9624th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.3820th/30
48.5627th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.5116th/30
55.51%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.16%26th/30
15.1130th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.3417th/30
20.8229th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.2916th/30
72.57%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.63%8th/30
8.5530th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4616th/30
32.1819th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.152nd/30
8.1618th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.8222nd/30
4.1826th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8215th/30
14.7821st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.4918th/30
22.0323rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.148th/30
Opponent
47.08%15th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.60%12th/30
13.6720th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.4623rd/30
38.3522nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.5125th/30
35.66%14th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.59%20th/30
27.879th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.255th/30
49.907th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.018th/30
55.85%21st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.50%13th/30
21.0527th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.721st/30
27.0227th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.603rd/30
77.90%9th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.40%7th/30
11.1310th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.078th/30
33.9125th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0620th/30
8.8119th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.4614th/30
4.185th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8518th/30
13.7720th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.1416th/30
19.264th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.9314th/30
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