DEN130
FINAL
131DAL
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Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks — Win Probability

FINAL
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
21-7
130
VS
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
12-18
131
Model expected score: Denver Nuggets 122.2 – Dallas Mavericks 116.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut
DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nuggets 72%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Mavericks won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
261

Margin of Victory — Dallas Mavericks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
66%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 261.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 230
67% over ✓33% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
47% over ✓53% under
O/U LINE 250
27% over ✓73% under
O/U LINE 260
13% over ✓87% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
27.7
Jamal MurrayPG
25.4
Aaron GordonPF
16.2
Peyton WatsonSF
14.6
Cameron JohnsonSF
12.2
DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cooper FlaggSF
21.0
Anthony DavisPF
20.4
Naji MarshallSF
15.2
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.2
Max ChristieSG
12.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DEN
125.24
1st / 30
Points
DAL
113.61
23rd / 30
DEN
44.07
T-17th / 30
Rebounds
DAL
44.55
13th / 30
DEN
29.79
3rd / 30
Assists
DAL
25.32
23rd / 30
DEN
99.02
21st / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DAL
102.34
4th / 30
DEN
59.48%
1st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DAL
52.73%
25th / 30
DEN
11.25%
3rd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DAL
12.94%
20th / 30
DEN
25.58%
18th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DAL
22.91%
27th / 30
DEN
.283
13th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DAL
.288
9th / 30
DEN
126.48
1st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DAL
111.02
28th / 30
DEN
117.67
21st / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DAL
114.67
9th / 30
DEN
+8.81
2nd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DAL
-3.66
23rd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
51.49%1st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.57%18th/30
14.219th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.7528th/30
34.9621st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.1826th/30
40.64%1st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.40%28th/30
31.593rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.8510th/30
53.989th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
55.008th/30
58.52%2nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.27%17th/30
20.697th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.0719th/30
25.2112th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.0913th/30
82.04%3rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.01%25th/30
10.4122nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.1225th/30
34.093rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.417th/30
7.3826th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.7923rd/30
3.8328th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.893rd/30
12.683rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.5919th/30
19.504th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.986th/30
Opponent
47.00%16th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.19%9th/30
13.2315th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.131st/30
37.7919th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.572nd/30
35.02%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.15%1st/30
29.6721st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.0528th/30
53.4919th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
57.7530th/30
55.47%19th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.77%10th/30
18.639th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.2016th/30
23.619th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.6517th/30
78.91%15th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.88%11th/30
11.2511th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.4528th/30
30.304th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.0427th/30
7.808th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.7919th/30
4.359th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.6016th/30
12.2229th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.7026th/30
21.7322nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.0616th/30
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