CHA86
FINAL
112DET
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Charlotte Hornets vs Detroit Pistons — Win Probability

FINAL
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
9-18
86
VS
Detroit Pistons logo
Detroit Pistons
20-7
112
Model expected score: Charlotte Hornets 114.1 – Detroit Pistons 123.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut
DET
  • Isaiah JoeOut
  • Jalen DurenOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pistons 80%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Pistons won by 26
COMBINED SCORE
198

Margin of Victory — Detroit Pistons (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
26%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
20%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 198.

O/U LINE 210
92% over8% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
82% over18% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
65% over35% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
44% over56% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
25% over75% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
12% over88% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon MillerSF
20.2
LaMelo BallPG
20.1
Kon KnueppelSF
18.5
Miles BridgesPF
17.1
Collin SextonSG
14.2
DET
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cade CunninghamPG
23.9
Jalen DurenC
19.5
Tobias HarrisPF
13.3
Duncan RobinsonSG
12.2
Ausar ThompsonSF
9.9

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CHA
114.46
21st / 30
Points
DET
118.89
9th / 30
CHA
44.14
T-17th / 30
Rebounds
DET
47.29
2nd / 30
CHA
25.89
17th / 30
Assists
DET
26.11
15th / 30
CHA
99.84
19th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DET
100.70
13th / 30
CHA
53.36%
22nd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DET
53.89%
17th / 30
CHA
13.20%
24th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DET
12.62%
17th / 30
CHA
27.01%
13th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DET
31.90%
2nd / 30
CHA
.264
20th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DET
.315
3rd / 30
CHA
114.65
22nd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DET
118.07
9th / 30
CHA
118.66
22nd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DET
111.37
2nd / 30
CHA
-4.01
23rd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DET
+6.70
5th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.33%24th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.85%10th/30
14.347th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.8527th/30
40.715th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
31.4227th/30
35.24%17th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.54%21st/30
26.1528th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
32.172nd/30
48.6127th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
58.493rd/30
53.79%20th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.00%14th/30
19.3217th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.175th/30
23.6121st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.343rd/30
81.82%4th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
74.72%28th/30
11.4117th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.944th/30
32.8014th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0210th/30
7.2328th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.933rd/30
4.9713th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.963rd/30
15.1723rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.7921st/30
19.503rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.9129th/30
Opponent
48.97%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.20%2nd/30
13.0212th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.8011th/30
34.316th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.5314th/30
37.96%28th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.05%9th/30
31.4130th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.042nd/30
56.4129th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.094th/30
55.68%21st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.01%3rd/30
16.782nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.8830th/30
21.181st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.4129th/30
79.22%18th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.52%27th/30
10.452nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.5617th/30
30.845th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.762nd/30
8.5514th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.8720th/30
4.267th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.5325th/30
12.9525th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.243rd/30
21.5019th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.9828th/30
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