TOR111
FINAL
105MIL
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Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks — Win Probability

FINAL
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
16-10
111
VS
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
11-16
105
Model expected score: Toronto Raptors 115.7 – Milwaukee Bucks 115.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut
MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Raptors 50%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Raptors won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
216

Margin of Victory — Milwaukee Bucks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
51%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
15%
Won by 15-21
9%
Won by 21+
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 216.

O/U LINE 210
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 220
72% over28% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
52% over48% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
32% over68% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon IngramSF
21.5
RJ BarrettSF
19.3
Scottie BarnesPF
18.1
Immanuel QuickleyPG
16.4
Jakob PoeltlC
10.7
MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
27.6
Kevin Porter Jr.PG
17.4
Ryan RollinsPG
17.3
Kyle KuzmaPF
13.0
Myles TurnerC
11.9

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
TOR
115.25
19th / 30
Points
MIL
113.57
24th / 30
TOR
42.54
23rd / 30
Rebounds
MIL
39.32
30th / 30
TOR
29.61
3rd / 30
Assists
MIL
26.71
11th / 30
TOR
99.05
21st / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIL
98.81
24th / 30
TOR
55.10%
10th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIL
57.76%
2nd / 30
TOR
12.53%
16th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIL
13.12%
22nd / 30
TOR
25.34%
19th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIL
19.66%
30th / 30
TOR
.261
21st / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIL
.238
29th / 30
TOR
116.35
13th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
114.94
20th / 30
TOR
114.01
7th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
118.84
22nd / 30
TOR
+2.34
11th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIL
-3.90
22nd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.47%6th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.94%4th/30
11.8625th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.294th/30
32.6326th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.8810th/30
36.35%12th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
40.36%1st/30
31.484th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.1123rd/30
56.795th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.7626th/30
55.43%12th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.60%11th/30
17.8124th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
14.8630th/30
23.3622nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
20.6029th/30
76.23%25th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
72.11%30th/30
10.8520th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
8.2830th/30
32.0920th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.5224th/30
8.988th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.2019th/30
4.2922nd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.2324th/30
14.2816th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.4618th/30
22.0323rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.0122nd/30
Opponent
46.38%11th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.35%17th/30
12.768th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.8821st/30
37.7518th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.4622nd/30
33.81%4th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.09%15th/30
27.476th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.0510th/30
49.004th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.107th/30
56.07%25th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.99%23rd/30
20.7723rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.1126th/30
26.2122nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.7526th/30
79.23%17th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.92%16th/30
11.6519th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4213th/30
31.9812th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.8325th/30
8.6516th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.7117th/30
5.8828th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.054th/30
15.474th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.9918th/30
19.798th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.235th/30
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