WSH94
FINAL
119SA
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Washington Wizards vs San Antonio Spurs — Win Probability

FINAL
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
4-20
94
VS
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
16-7
119
Model expected score: Washington Wizards 113.8 – San Antonio Spurs 126.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut
SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Spurs 86%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Spurs won by 25
COMBINED SCORE
213

Margin of Victory — San Antonio Spurs (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
18%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
28%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 213.

O/U LINE 210
95% over ✓5% under
O/U LINE 220
86% over14% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
71% over29% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
51% over49% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
15% over85% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
CJ McCollumSG
18.8
Alex SarrC
16.3
Trae YoungPG
15.2
Kyshawn GeorgeSF
14.8
Tre JohnsonSG
12.2
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
25.0
De'Aaron FoxPG
18.6
Stephon CastlePG
16.7
Devin VassellSG
13.9
Julian ChampagnieSF
11.1

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
WSH
112.04
26th / 30
Points
SA
119.44
T-7th / 30
WSH
43.36
21st / 30
Rebounds
SA
45.26
9th / 30
WSH
25.56
20th / 30
Assists
SA
25.96
16th / 30
WSH
101.31
7th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
SA
99.74
18th / 30
WSH
53.35%
22nd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
SA
55.77%
8th / 30
WSH
13.75%
29th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
SA
12.25%
12th / 30
WSH
24.07%
22nd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
SA
27.17%
10th / 30
WSH
.245
27th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
SA
.295
8th / 30
WSH
110.59
27th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
119.76
7th / 30
WSH
124.77
30th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
115.01
13th / 30
WSH
-14.17
30th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
SA
+4.75
8th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.05%20th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.08%9th/30
12.9119th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.6714th/30
35.4620th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.3613th/30
36.41%11th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.58%8th/30
27.8418th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.0013th/30
53.0312th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.3917th/30
52.49%27th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.43%6th/30
16.1928th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.769th/30
21.7227th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.148th/30
74.55%29th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.40%10th/30
10.9419th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.8512th/30
31.8622nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.536th/30
6.8730th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.2817th/30
5.576th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.9015th/30
15.6428th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.0012th/30
21.8321st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.165th/30
Opponent
48.08%23rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.70%15th/30
14.6125th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.1816th/30
39.3327th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.508th/30
37.15%24th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.13%23rd/30
30.3225th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.8916th/30
54.1324th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.5925th/30
56.02%24th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.93%5th/30
20.2922nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.684th/30
25.5520th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.434th/30
79.44%20th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.81%15th/30
13.7830th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.695th/30
34.5129th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.7510th/30
10.0728th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.1311th/30
5.8427th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.318th/30
11.4930th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.5521st/30
17.571st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.9823rd/30
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