ATL131
FINAL
116WSH
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Atlanta Hawks vs Washington Wizards — Win Probability

FINAL
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
13-11
131
VS
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
3-18
116
Model expected score: Atlanta Hawks 123.2 – Washington Wizards 115.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut
WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Hawks 75%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Hawks won by 15
COMBINED SCORE
247

Margin of Victory — Washington Wizards (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
71%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
9%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 247.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 230
67% over ✓33% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
47% over ✓53% under
O/U LINE 250
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
13% over87% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen JohnsonSF
22.5
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerSG
20.8
Trae YoungPG
19.3
CJ McCollumPG
18.7
Kristaps PorziņģisC
17.1
WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
CJ McCollumSG
18.8
Alex SarrC
16.3
Trae YoungPG
15.2
Kyshawn GeorgeSF
14.8
Tre JohnsonSG
12.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
ATL
118.04
15th / 30
Points
WSH
112.41
24th / 30
ATL
41.76
25th / 30
Rebounds
WSH
42.41
23rd / 30
ATL
30.80
1st / 30
Assists
WSH
25.55
18th / 30
ATL
101.02
9th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
WSH
102.01
4th / 30
ATL
56.30%
6th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
WSH
53.60%
20th / 30
ATL
12.40%
12th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
WSH
14.06%
30th / 30
ATL
22.94%
26th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
WSH
23.34%
23rd / 30
ATL
.245
26th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
WSH
.242
28th / 30
ATL
116.85
13th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
WSH
110.19
28th / 30
ATL
115.30
15th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
WSH
125.74
30th / 30
ATL
+1.54
15th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
WSH
-15.55
30th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.50%9th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.20%19th/30
13.8210th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.0118th/30
37.4212th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.2020th/30
36.93%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.96%8th/30
29.1812th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.5820th/30
51.2415th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.6712th/30
56.96%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.37%28th/30
17.0326th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.0028th/30
21.7027th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.3028th/30
78.47%17th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.10%28th/30
9.8226th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.4721st/30
31.5222nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.1025th/30
9.545th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.8230th/30
4.9914th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.664th/30
13.9010th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.9130th/30
20.359th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.7021st/30
Opponent
46.86%15th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.76%26th/30
12.759th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.7026th/30
36.6714th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.4121st/30
34.77%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.28%26th/30
28.6716th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.8327th/30
51.7113th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.9827th/30
55.44%19th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.08%23rd/30
19.7217th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.9621st/30
24.5515th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.4021st/30
80.32%24th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.60%12th/30
11.9224th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.7730th/30
32.9818th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.4027th/30
8.7919th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.5230th/30
4.3612th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.8427th/30
15.564th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.6730th/30
19.203rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
17.601st/30
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