DAL131
FINAL
121DEN
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Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets — Win Probability

FINAL
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
7-14
131
VS
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
14-5
121
Model expected score: Dallas Mavericks 111.7 – Denver Nuggets 123.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut
DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nuggets 86%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Mavericks won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
252

Margin of Victory — Denver Nuggets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
19%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+
27%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 252.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 230
61% over ✓39% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
41% over ✓59% under
O/U LINE 250
22% over ✓78% under
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cooper FlaggSF
21.0
Anthony DavisPF
20.4
Naji MarshallSF
15.2
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.2
Max ChristieSG
12.3
DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
27.7
Jamal MurrayPG
25.4
Aaron GordonPF
16.2
Peyton WatsonSF
14.6
Cameron JohnsonSF
12.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DAL
111.14
28th / 30
Points
DEN
124.60
1st / 30
DAL
44.68
14th / 30
Rebounds
DEN
45.75
9th / 30
DAL
24.45
26th / 30
Assists
DEN
29.85
4th / 30
DAL
102.66
4th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DEN
98.66
25th / 30
DAL
51.44%
28th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DEN
58.43%
2nd / 30
DAL
13.30%
24th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DEN
11.59%
4th / 30
DAL
21.96%
28th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DEN
28.78%
8th / 30
DAL
.302
6th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DEN
.289
12th / 30
DAL
108.26
30th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DEN
126.30
1st / 30
DAL
113.09
4th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DEN
117.43
19th / 30
DAL
-4.83
23rd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DEN
+8.87
3rd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
44.91%25th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
50.88%2nd/30
11.2527th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.5312th/30
34.1422nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.8721st/30
32.94%28th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.81%3rd/30
27.4521st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
32.033rd/30
52.0312th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.696th/30
52.77%24th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.57%2nd/30
19.6217th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.646th/30
25.9910th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.9012th/30
75.47%27th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
83.56%3rd/30
9.9224th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.7615th/30
33.617th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.622nd/30
8.1021st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.9928th/30
5.763rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.0525th/30
14.9721st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.233rd/30
20.7210th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.663rd/30
Opponent
45.87%7th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.13%10th/30
10.801st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.9211th/30
33.032nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.8223rd/30
32.71%4th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.29%5th/30
30.5126th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.7022nd/30
57.0330th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.5722nd/30
53.49%8th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.44%18th/30
19.6615th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.2612th/30
25.9521st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.3310th/30
75.77%2nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.17%15th/30
12.1324th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.6115th/30
35.2529th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.093rd/30
8.8623rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.017th/30
5.0521st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.369th/30
13.0224th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.6630th/30
21.6116th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.3022nd/30
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