MIL126
FINAL
129WSH
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Milwaukee Bucks vs Washington Wizards — Win Probability

FINAL
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
9-12
126
VS
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
2-16
129
Model expected score: Milwaukee Bucks 121.8 – Washington Wizards 117.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day
WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bucks 67%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Wizards won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
255

Margin of Victory — Washington Wizards (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
63%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
11%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 255.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 230
68% over ✓32% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
47% over ✓53% under
O/U LINE 250
28% over ✓72% under
O/U LINE 260
13% over87% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
27.6
Kevin Porter Jr.PG
17.4
Ryan RollinsPG
17.3
Kyle KuzmaPF
13.0
Myles TurnerC
11.9
WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
CJ McCollumSG
18.8
Alex SarrC
16.3
Trae YoungPG
15.2
Kyshawn GeorgeSF
14.8
Tre JohnsonSG
12.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIL
115.95
19th / 30
Points
WSH
113.37
24th / 30
MIL
39.68
28th / 30
Rebounds
WSH
43.00
21st / 30
MIL
27.14
11th / 30
Assists
WSH
25.74
19th / 30
MIL
99.54
19th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
WSH
102.42
5th / 30
MIL
58.52%
1st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
WSH
53.95%
20th / 30
MIL
12.67%
17th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
WSH
13.81%
29th / 30
MIL
19.72%
30th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
WSH
23.17%
24th / 30
MIL
.232
29th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
WSH
.234
28th / 30
MIL
116.49
16th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
WSH
110.69
27th / 30
MIL
118.73
22nd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
WSH
124.56
30th / 30
MIL
-2.24
18th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
WSH
-13.87
30th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
49.45%3rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.51%18th/30
15.853rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.1515th/30
38.0411th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.2020th/30
41.66%1st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.37%8th/30
27.3522nd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.9517th/30
49.3227th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.1910th/30
55.46%11th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.56%25th/30
14.2530th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.3129th/30
20.2829th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
20.6628th/30
70.27%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
74.13%29th/30
8.3130th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.4321st/30
31.5522nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.5523rd/30
8.1720th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.0427th/30
4.3420th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.506th/30
13.9711th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.6228th/30
21.9623rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.2024th/30
Opponent
47.72%21st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.41%25th/30
13.3317th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.3924th/30
37.0314th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.8220th/30
36.00%14th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.04%26th/30
28.6315th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.3224th/30
50.9210th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.5226th/30
56.23%23rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.61%19th/30
21.4626th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.7623rd/30
27.3127th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.6224th/30
78.60%13th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.99%12th/30
11.1910th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.6730th/30
33.8424th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.5826th/30
8.4917th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.1229th/30
4.348th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.8127th/30
13.8819th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.8728th/30
18.912nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
17.371st/30
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