ATL142
FINAL
134PHI
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Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers — Win Probability

FINAL
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
12-8
142
VS
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
10-8
134
Model expected score: Atlanta Hawks 117.6 – Philadelphia 76ers 118.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut
PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
76ers 51%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Hawks won by 8
COMBINED SCORE
276

Margin of Victory — Philadelphia 76ers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
48%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
15%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
8%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 276.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
80% over ✓20% under
O/U LINE 230
62% over ✓38% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
41% over ✓59% under
O/U LINE 250
23% over ✓77% under
O/U LINE 260
10% over ✓90% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen JohnsonSF
22.5
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerSG
20.8
Trae YoungPG
19.3
CJ McCollumPG
18.7
Kristaps PorziņģisC
17.1
PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
28.3
Joel EmbiidC
26.9
Paul GeorgePF
17.3
VJ EdgecombeSG
16.0
Kelly Oubre Jr.SF
14.1

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
ATL
118.90
11th / 30
Points
PHI
118.16
15th / 30
ATL
42.00
25th / 30
Rebounds
PHI
44.16
17th / 30
ATL
31.05
1st / 30
Assists
PHI
25.89
T-17th / 30
ATL
101.37
9th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
PHI
101.74
7th / 30
ATL
56.49%
5th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
PHI
53.57%
21st / 30
ATL
12.48%
15th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
PHI
12.62%
17th / 30
ATL
23.03%
24th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
PHI
26.82%
13th / 30
ATL
.263
24th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
PHI
.287
13th / 30
ATL
117.29
14th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHI
116.13
17th / 30
ATL
114.99
13th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHI
116.80
19th / 30
ATL
+2.30
15th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
PHI
-0.67
17th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.77%7th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.23%18th/30
13.5812th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.0918th/30
36.6916th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.2619th/30
37.00%10th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.09%13th/30
29.3111th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.0916th/30
51.2517th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.8210th/30
57.20%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.18%23rd/30
17.9426th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.6912th/30
23.1625th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.5513th/30
77.48%19th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.97%8th/30
9.7726th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.7914th/30
31.6623rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.6124th/30
9.217th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.8622nd/30
5.407th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.311st/30
14.0012th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.4816th/30
20.678th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.1114th/30
Opponent
46.40%12th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.88%15th/30
12.8711th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.0413th/30
37.2515th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.2414th/30
34.55%7th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.00%9th/30
28.2813th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.3821st/30
51.4415th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.2321st/30
54.98%16th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.20%17th/30
19.8218th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.939th/30
24.7613th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.319th/30
80.08%22nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.87%9th/30
12.0723rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.6415th/30
32.6517th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.1814th/30
8.6420th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.975th/30
4.188th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8116th/30
15.367th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.6020th/30
19.826th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.2113th/30
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