UTAH117
FINAL
134GS
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Utah Jazz vs Golden State Warriors — Win Probability

FINAL
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
5-11
117
VS
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
9-9
134
Model expected score: Utah Jazz 115.1 – Golden State Warriors 123.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

UTAH
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out
GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Warriors 79%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Warriors won by 17
COMBINED SCORE
251

Margin of Victory — Golden State Warriors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
28%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
16%
Won by 21+
19%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 251.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 230
67% over ✓33% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
47% over ✓53% under
O/U LINE 250
27% over ✓73% under
O/U LINE 260
13% over87% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Lauri MarkkanenPF
26.7
Keyonte GeorgePG
23.6
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
22.3
Brice SensabaughSF
14.9
Walker KesslerC
14.4
GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
26.6
Jimmy ButlerSF
20.0
Kristaps PorziņģisC
16.1
Brandin PodziemskiSG
13.8
De'Anthony MeltonPG
12.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
UTAH
118.06
15th / 30
Points
GS
115.84
21st / 30
UTAH
46.59
2nd / 30
Rebounds
GS
42.63
22nd / 30
UTAH
29.59
5th / 30
Assists
GS
27.53
8th / 30
UTAH
103.03
4th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
GS
100.43
13th / 30
UTAH
52.55%
24th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
GS
54.76%
16th / 30
UTAH
14.02%
27th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
GS
13.94%
26th / 30
UTAH
29.69%
7th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
GS
24.79%
19th / 30
UTAH
.297
9th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
GS
.281
17th / 30
UTAH
114.59
23rd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
GS
115.34
22nd / 30
UTAH
121.84
27th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
GS
114.50
10th / 30
UTAH
-7.25
25th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
GS
+0.84
17th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.07%24th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.45%23rd/30
13.2516th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
16.191st/30
39.5710th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
43.913rd/30
33.48%24th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.87%12th/30
26.6625th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
23.3230th/30
48.9926th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
43.0230th/30
54.43%18th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.20%20th/30
21.527th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.1217th/30
26.3210th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.4220th/30
81.78%6th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.40%5th/30
13.196th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.9519th/30
32.0318th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.4922nd/30
7.7122nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.173rd/30
3.6027th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.4521st/30
16.3330th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.8325th/30
21.8121st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.547th/30
Opponent
48.69%26th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.18%17th/30
15.3628th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.427th/30
41.1628th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.379th/30
37.31%25th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.11%8th/30
28.0913th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.1919th/30
48.073rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.8220th/30
58.43%27th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.26%17th/30
19.5814th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.879th/30
24.3212th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.905th/30
80.52%24th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.38%30th/30
10.454th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.2712th/30
31.2310th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.2220th/30
9.6527th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.5919th/30
5.4826th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.935th/30
13.1324th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.835th/30
21.8115th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.282nd/30
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