HOU114
FINAL
92PHX
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Houston Rockets vs Phoenix Suns — Win Probability

FINAL
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
10-4
114
VS
Phoenix Suns logo
Phoenix Suns
11-6
92
Model expected score: Houston Rockets 118.8 – Phoenix Suns 118.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut
PHX
  • Jordan GoodwinOut
  • Mark WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Rockets 52%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Rockets won by 22
COMBINED SCORE
206

Margin of Victory — Phoenix Suns (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
51%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
15%
Won by 15-21
9%
Won by 21+
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 206.

O/U LINE 210
92% over8% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
82% over18% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
65% over35% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
44% over56% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
25% over75% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
12% over88% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Kevin DurantSF
26.0
Alperen ŞengünC
20.4
Amen ThompsonPG
18.3
Jabari Smith Jr.PF
15.8
Reed SheppardSG
13.5
PHX
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Devin BookerSG
26.1
Dillon BrooksSF
20.2
Jalen GreenSG
17.8
Grayson AllenSG
16.5
Collin GillespiePG
12.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
HOU
122.27
4th / 30
Points
PHX
117.06
18th / 30
HOU
49.07
1st / 30
Rebounds
PHX
43.39
21st / 30
HOU
25.33
23rd / 30
Assists
PHX
25.94
18th / 30
HOU
97.63
27th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
PHX
98.96
24th / 30
HOU
55.49%
10th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
PHX
55.43%
11th / 30
HOU
12.38%
14th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
PHX
13.80%
25th / 30
HOU
38.09%
1st / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
PHX
30.43%
3rd / 30
HOU
.293
12th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
PHX
.247
27th / 30
HOU
125.24
1st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHX
118.29
11th / 30
HOU
113.83
9th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHX
114.53
11th / 30
HOU
+11.40
2nd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
PHX
+3.76
12th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.50%10th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.96%15th/30
13.0419th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.336th/30
31.0729th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.208th/30
41.98%1st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.13%3rd/30
32.233rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.1721st/30
62.281st/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.3019th/30
51.75%27th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.02%21st/30
21.655th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.9726th/30
27.315th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.3427th/30
79.25%14th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.40%9th/30
16.591st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.148th/30
33.667th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.7126th/30
9.705th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.722nd/30
4.9814th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.5519th/30
14.8920th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.0628th/30
21.2416th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.7528th/30
Opponent
45.50%9th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.41%13th/30
14.2022nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.295th/30
39.6125th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.2111th/30
35.86%12th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.95%7th/30
26.847th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.4116th/30
50.6010th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.4815th/30
53.04%9th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.18%16th/30
17.553rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.8323rd/30
24.1710th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.9921st/30
72.60%1st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.13%20th/30
11.9521st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.4623rd/30
26.971st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.047th/30
8.6020th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.6025th/30
5.1922nd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.5514th/30
14.3415th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.563rd/30
22.9424th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.329th/30
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