LAC105
FINAL
120CLE
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LA Clippers vs Cleveland Cavaliers — Win Probability

FINAL
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
5-11
105
VS
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
11-6
120
Model expected score: LA Clippers 113.1 – Cleveland Cavaliers 121.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAC
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Cam ChristieDay-To-Day
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut
CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 78%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Cavaliers won by 15
COMBINED SCORE
225

Margin of Victory — Cleveland Cavaliers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
27%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
16%
Won by 21+
19%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 225.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
60% over40% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
39% over61% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Kawhi LeonardSF
27.9
James HardenPG
25.4
Darius GarlandPG
19.9
Ivica ZubacC
14.4
John CollinsPF
13.6
CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
27.9
James HardenPG
20.5
Evan MobleyPF
18.2
Darius GarlandPG
18.0
Jarrett AllenC
15.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
LAC
111.82
26th / 30
Points
CLE
119.89
9th / 30
LAC
41.35
26th / 30
Rebounds
CLE
43.89
18th / 30
LAC
24.00
27th / 30
Assists
CLE
27.11
11th / 30
LAC
96.86
29th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CLE
101.26
9th / 30
LAC
54.94%
14th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CLE
54.84%
15th / 30
LAC
13.77%
25th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CLE
11.80%
8th / 30
LAC
24.47%
20th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CLE
26.85%
15th / 30
LAC
.280
20th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CLE
.289
13th / 30
LAC
115.45
21st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CLE
118.40
12th / 30
LAC
121.04
24th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CLE
113.63
6th / 30
LAC
-5.59
23rd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CLE
+4.77
11th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.02%15th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.29%19th/30
13.7312th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.425th/30
37.7112th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
43.892nd/30
36.39%14th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.13%21st/30
27.0322nd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.3425th/30
48.9526th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.3128th/30
55.21%12th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.87%8th/30
20.2218th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.4822nd/30
24.2322nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.0613th/30
83.46%2nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
74.74%27th/30
10.4520th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.1312th/30
32.2514th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.2225th/30
8.6813th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.8912th/30
5.1013th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.714th/30
15.5522nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.619th/30
21.0713th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.7819th/30
Opponent
47.34%17th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.96%10th/30
15.3730th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.629th/30
39.7827th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.133rd/30
38.63%26th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.98%23rd/30
27.8211th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.329th/30
51.4415th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.7823rd/30
54.07%12th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.77%6th/30
19.3111th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.1223rd/30
24.1711th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.0619th/30
79.90%18th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.05%28th/30
12.0921st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4715th/30
32.2514th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0319th/30
10.1428th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.3415th/30
4.258th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.066th/30
13.2424th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.866th/30
20.7111th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.8223rd/30
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