WSH120
FINAL
121CHI
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Washington Wizards vs Chicago Bulls — Win Probability

FINAL
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
1-14
120
VS
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
8-7
121
Model expected score: Washington Wizards 117.0 – Chicago Bulls 128.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut
CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bulls 84%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Bulls won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
241

Margin of Victory — Chicago Bulls (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
21%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
7%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+
25%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 241.

O/U LINE 210
97% over ✓3% under
O/U LINE 220
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 230
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 240
61% over ✓39% under
O/U LINE 250 MODEL'S PICK
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
22% over78% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
CJ McCollumSG
18.8
Alex SarrC
16.3
Trae YoungPG
15.2
Kyshawn GeorgeSF
14.8
Tre JohnsonSG
12.2
CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Coby WhiteSG
18.6
Collin SextonSG
17.5
Josh GiddeyPG
17.0
Nikola VučevićC
16.9
Matas BuzelisPF
16.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
WSH
112.94
23rd / 30
Points
CHI
120.75
8th / 30
WSH
43.63
20th / 30
Rebounds
CHI
47.19
2nd / 30
WSH
25.75
22nd / 30
Assists
CHI
29.69
4th / 30
WSH
102.98
4th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CHI
103.92
2nd / 30
WSH
53.41%
21st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CHI
55.11%
14th / 30
WSH
14.21%
27th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CHI
12.44%
14th / 30
WSH
23.03%
25th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CHI
23.96%
23rd / 30
WSH
.235
28th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CHI
.267
23rd / 30
WSH
109.67
28th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHI
116.19
20th / 30
WSH
125.39
30th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHI
118.42
20th / 30
WSH
-15.72
30th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CHI
-2.23
19th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.93%20th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.21%14th/30
13.1718th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.9510th/30
35.1420th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.9914th/30
37.48%10th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.72%8th/30
27.2520th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.7217th/30
52.869th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.3014th/30
51.55%27th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.04%20th/30
15.6628th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.8824th/30
20.7028th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.5824th/30
75.66%26th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.10%11th/30
10.4420th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.4021st/30
31.9218th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.003rd/30
6.6229th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.5824th/30
5.349th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.535th/30
16.0827th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.0112th/30
23.0027th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.878th/30
Opponent
48.03%23rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.79%16th/30
14.0221st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.457th/30
37.6920th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.525th/30
37.20%22nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.06%16th/30
30.4726th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.5527th/30
54.9227th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
57.3730th/30
55.47%18th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.25%9th/30
22.3926th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.9720th/30
28.4027th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.4418th/30
78.85%13th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.49%11th/30
14.2630th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.2722nd/30
34.9027th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0218th/30
10.8630th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.7822nd/30
5.7728th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.4725th/30
11.2930th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.7329th/30
17.421st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.095th/30
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