LAC101
FINAL
129ORL
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LA Clippers vs Orlando Magic — Win Probability

FINAL
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
4-10
101
VS
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
8-7
129
Model expected score: LA Clippers 112.4 – Orlando Magic 119.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAC
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Cam ChristieDay-To-Day
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut
ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Magic 72%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Magic won by 28
COMBINED SCORE
230

Margin of Victory — Orlando Magic (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
31%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
16%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 230.

O/U LINE 210
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 220
73% over ✓27% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
54% over46% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
33% over67% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
17% over83% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Kawhi LeonardSF
27.9
James HardenPG
25.4
Darius GarlandPG
19.9
Ivica ZubacC
14.4
John CollinsPF
13.6
ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
22.2
Franz WagnerSF
20.6
Desmond BaneSG
20.1
Anthony BlackPG
15.0
Jalen SuggsPG
13.8

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
LAC
111.00
T-25th / 30
Points
ORL
116.69
19th / 30
LAC
41.47
24th / 30
Rebounds
ORL
45.31
11th / 30
LAC
23.67
28th / 30
Assists
ORL
24.88
24th / 30
LAC
97.21
29th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
ORL
100.31
17th / 30
LAC
54.69%
13th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
ORL
53.78%
19th / 30
LAC
14.18%
26th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
ORL
13.26%
21st / 30
LAC
24.03%
21st / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
ORL
27.18%
13th / 30
LAC
.278
20th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
ORL
.366
1st / 30
LAC
114.18
22nd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ORL
116.33
20th / 30
LAC
120.49
25th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ORL
112.78
4th / 30
LAC
-6.31
24th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
ORL
+3.55
13th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.78%15th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.18%14th/30
13.6512th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.2227th/30
37.8512th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.3427th/30
36.05%16th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.68%20th/30
26.6823rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.8512th/30
48.3527th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.5911th/30
55.18%11th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.86%13th/30
19.8918th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
24.991st/30
23.9322nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
31.091st/30
83.09%3rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.36%10th/30
10.2221st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4614th/30
32.4415th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.717th/30
8.8513th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.4717th/30
5.498th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.489th/30
15.9826th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.0820th/30
21.3317th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.6819th/30
Opponent
46.99%17th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.33%13th/30
15.4329th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.533rd/30
39.3625th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.151st/30
39.20%27th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.85%16th/30
27.4310th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.3521st/30
51.8417th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
56.0828th/30
52.91%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.33%7th/30
19.3411th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.5014th/30
24.1411th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.1718th/30
80.11%20th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.48%7th/30
12.3424th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.788th/30
32.3014th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.728th/30
10.4228th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.4114th/30
4.399th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.1124th/30
13.4422nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.5815th/30
20.5010th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.8030th/30
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