BKN129
FINAL
106WSH
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Brooklyn Nets vs Washington Wizards — Win Probability

FINAL
Brooklyn Nets logo
Brooklyn Nets
1-11
129
VS
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
1-11
106
Model expected score: Brooklyn Nets 118.7 – Washington Wizards 120.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BKN
  • Mikel Brown Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Grant NelsonDay-To-Day
  • Egor DeminOut
WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Wizards 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Nets won by 23
COMBINED SCORE
235

Margin of Victory — Washington Wizards (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
44%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 235.

O/U LINE 210
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 220
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 230
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
49% over51% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
29% over71% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
14% over86% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BKN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Michael Porter Jr.SF
24.2
Cam ThomasSG
15.6
Noah ClowneyPF
12.3
Nic ClaxtonC
11.7
Egor DëminPG
10.3
WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
CJ McCollumSG
18.8
Alex SarrC
16.3
Trae YoungPG
15.2
Kyshawn GeorgeSF
14.8
Tre JohnsonSG
12.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
BKN
110.46
28th / 30
Points
WSH
112.92
24th / 30
BKN
38.85
30th / 30
Rebounds
WSH
43.92
16th / 30
BKN
24.62
25th / 30
Assists
WSH
25.23
23rd / 30
BKN
97.70
28th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
WSH
103.67
3rd / 30
BKN
51.96%
25th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
WSH
53.18%
22nd / 30
BKN
12.75%
17th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
WSH
14.20%
28th / 30
BKN
25.13%
16th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
WSH
22.62%
26th / 30
BKN
.305
7th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
WSH
.242
29th / 30
BKN
113.06
24th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
WSH
108.92
28th / 30
BKN
124.79
29th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
WSH
125.02
30th / 30
BKN
-11.73
27th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
WSH
-16.10
30th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
43.94%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.76%20th/30
14.178th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.9818th/30
42.755th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.8719th/30
33.15%27th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.23%10th/30
24.6429th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.0822nd/30
45.5929th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.6810th/30
54.06%17th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.41%27th/30
21.269th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.8028th/30
26.939th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.1529th/30
78.95%19th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
74.74%27th/30
11.6513th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.2421st/30
28.1130th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.1317th/30
7.1626th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.3129th/30
3.6227th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.499th/30
14.6416th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.0327th/30
22.7521st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.8522nd/30
Opponent
50.89%29th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.12%23rd/30
13.9418th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.2522nd/30
35.599th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.9119th/30
39.16%28th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.57%25th/30
31.2629th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.3525th/30
53.2224th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.7627th/30
58.73%27th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.42%20th/30
20.4720th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.5924th/30
26.8522nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.2323rd/30
76.25%4th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.29%15th/30
11.5715th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.8029th/30
34.7225th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.0229th/30
8.4215th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
11.1330th/30
4.6514th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.0828th/30
13.6222nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.3530th/30
23.3125th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
17.581st/30
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