TOR126
FINAL
113CLE
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Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers — Win Probability

FINAL
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
6-5
126
VS
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
8-4
113
Model expected score: Toronto Raptors 118.8 – Cleveland Cavaliers 123.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut
CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Raptors won by 13
COMBINED SCORE
239

Margin of Victory — Cleveland Cavaliers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
38%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
12%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 239.

O/U LINE 210
95% over ✓5% under
O/U LINE 220
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 230
73% over ✓27% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
54% over46% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
33% over67% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
17% over83% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon IngramSF
21.5
RJ BarrettSF
19.3
Scottie BarnesPF
18.1
Immanuel QuickleyPG
16.4
Jakob PoeltlC
10.7
CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
27.9
James HardenPG
20.5
Evan MobleyPF
18.2
Darius GarlandPG
18.0
Jarrett AllenC
15.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
TOR
119.83
10th / 30
Points
CLE
122.15
5th / 30
TOR
42.17
22nd / 30
Rebounds
CLE
43.38
18th / 30
TOR
30.33
2nd / 30
Assists
CLE
27.92
T-7th / 30
TOR
99.82
18th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CLE
102.19
5th / 30
TOR
56.52%
8th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CLE
53.92%
18th / 30
TOR
11.61%
7th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CLE
11.22%
4th / 30
TOR
24.07%
21st / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CLE
28.16%
14th / 30
TOR
.277
21st / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CLE
.282
19th / 30
TOR
120.05
6th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CLE
119.54
10th / 30
TOR
116.29
17th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CLE
115.70
14th / 30
TOR
+3.76
12th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CLE
+3.84
11th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
49.34%8th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.31%23rd/30
12.7720th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.883rd/30
33.7323rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
45.622nd/30
37.87%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.82%20th/30
31.144th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.9027th/30
55.277th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.6028th/30
56.34%9th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.57%11th/30
19.4520th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.1016th/30
24.6321st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.0514th/30
78.98%16th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.17%24th/30
10.2721st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.109th/30
31.9717th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.3627th/30
8.0121st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.717th/30
4.5119th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.5011th/30
13.117th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.106th/30
23.5427th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.8317th/30
Opponent
46.85%14th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.34%16th/30
11.603rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.2514th/30
36.0612th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.155th/30
32.18%3rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.69%25th/30
29.3019th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.6311th/30
51.2615th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.1914th/30
57.17%23rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.97%11th/30
22.8726th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.7020th/30
28.7226th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.6719th/30
79.65%17th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.65%21st/30
12.3623rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.5215th/30
32.3915th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.4221st/30
7.937th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.2112th/30
5.8427th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.229th/30
14.6913th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.563rd/30
20.627th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.4927th/30
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