CHI113
FINAL
124DET
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Chicago Bulls vs Detroit Pistons — Win Probability

FINAL
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
6-4
113
VS
Detroit Pistons logo
Detroit Pistons
8-3
124
Model expected score: Chicago Bulls 115.1 – Detroit Pistons 121.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day
DET
  • Isaiah JoeOut
  • Jalen DurenOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pistons 72%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Pistons won by 11
COMBINED SCORE
237

Margin of Victory — Detroit Pistons (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
32%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
19%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
16%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 237.

O/U LINE 210
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 220
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 230
64% over ✓36% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
43% over57% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
24% over76% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
11% over89% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Coby WhiteSG
18.6
Collin SextonSG
17.5
Josh GiddeyPG
17.0
Nikola VučevićC
16.9
Matas BuzelisPF
16.3
DET
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cade CunninghamPG
23.9
Jalen DurenC
19.5
Tobias HarrisPF
13.3
Duncan RobinsonSG
12.2
Ausar ThompsonSF
9.9

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CHI
118.64
12th / 30
Points
DET
118.50
13th / 30
CHI
46.45
8th / 30
Rebounds
DET
47.92
3rd / 30
CHI
28.91
5th / 30
Assists
DET
26.17
18th / 30
CHI
101.54
9th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DET
101.30
11th / 30
CHI
56.12%
8th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DET
53.42%
21st / 30
CHI
13.01%
17th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DET
12.18%
10th / 30
CHI
24.79%
18th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DET
31.45%
3rd / 30
CHI
.277
21st / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DET
.313
7th / 30
CHI
116.83
18th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DET
116.98
17th / 30
CHI
117.10
19th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DET
111.30
2nd / 30
CHI
-0.27
19th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DET
+5.68
6th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.46%9th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.45%13th/30
13.3414th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.7828th/30
33.6623rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.8528th/30
39.63%4th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.93%20th/30
28.8314th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
32.002nd/30
53.3610th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
59.312nd/30
54.03%18th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.95%19th/30
19.1622nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.6514th/30
24.0822nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.225th/30
79.55%13th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
73.18%29th/30
10.3919th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.234th/30
35.363rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0710th/30
8.4217th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.283rd/30
4.5718th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.012nd/30
14.5916th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.2315th/30
20.779th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.8629th/30
Opponent
47.69%21st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.79%4th/30
11.917th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.9212th/30
33.394th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.0311th/30
35.66%15th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.84%16th/30
31.5129th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.192nd/30
57.6629th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.704th/30
54.66%15th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
49.66%3rd/30
18.357th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
24.1929th/30
23.377th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.6029th/30
78.54%10th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.03%14th/30
11.019th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.0921st/30
31.5113th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.0110th/30
8.5117th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.1411th/30
5.7326th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.6113th/30
12.3528th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.952nd/30
20.688th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.1222nd/30
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