PHX114
FINAL
103LAC
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Phoenix Suns vs LA Clippers — Win Probability

FINAL
Phoenix Suns logo
Phoenix Suns
4-5
114
VS
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
3-5
103
Model expected score: Phoenix Suns 116.8 – LA Clippers 116.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

PHX
  • Jordan GoodwinOut
  • Mark WilliamsOut
LAC
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Cam ChristieDay-To-Day
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Suns 51%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Suns won by 11
COMBINED SCORE
217

Margin of Victory — LA Clippers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
51%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
15%
Won by 15-21
9%
Won by 21+
6%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 217.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
75% over25% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
56% over44% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
36% over64% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
19% over81% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

PHX
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Devin BookerSG
26.1
Dillon BrooksSF
20.2
Jalen GreenSG
17.8
Grayson AllenSG
16.5
Collin GillespiePG
12.7
LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Kawhi LeonardSF
27.9
James HardenPG
25.4
Darius GarlandPG
19.9
Ivica ZubacC
14.4
John CollinsPF
13.6

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
PHX
116.40
18th / 30
Points
LAC
109.67
28th / 30
PHX
42.90
18th / 30
Rebounds
LAC
40.78
27th / 30
PHX
27.80
8th / 30
Assists
LAC
25.00
24th / 30
PHX
99.33
23rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
LAC
95.12
30th / 30
PHX
55.16%
14th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
LAC
56.29%
8th / 30
PHX
13.80%
20th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
LAC
14.88%
30th / 30
PHX
29.43%
8th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
LAC
25.92%
17th / 30
PHX
.232
29th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
LAC
.261
25th / 30
PHX
117.19
16th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAC
115.29
20th / 30
PHX
117.49
22nd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAC
120.90
27th / 30
PHX
-0.30
19th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
LAC
-5.61
23rd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.17%19th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.31%10th/30
16.313rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.7810th/30
42.994th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.9613th/30
37.94%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.31%15th/30
25.5727th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.9218th/30
47.7227th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.3626th/30
53.59%21st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.73%6th/30
17.1227th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.1126th/30
21.0428th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.5426th/30
81.34%8th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.31%11th/30
12.899th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.7518th/30
30.3026th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.1216th/30
10.073rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.935th/30
4.6316th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.9114th/30
16.0125th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.8230th/30
23.9628th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.742nd/30
Opponent
47.59%18th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.19%15th/30
12.6912th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
16.8230th/30
35.7412th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.5229th/30
35.49%13th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.56%27th/30
29.1018th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.287th/30
52.0516th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.836th/30
55.90%20th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.83%11th/30
21.2424th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.873rd/30
26.4821st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.963rd/30
80.23%23rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.38%26th/30
11.9817th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.8526th/30
30.9112th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.729th/30
9.3625th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
11.6830th/30
4.4314th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.746th/30
15.817th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.8315th/30
20.446th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.0311th/30
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