DAL111
FINAL
105WSH
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Dallas Mavericks vs Washington Wizards — Win Probability

FINAL
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
3-6
111
VS
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
1-8
105
Model expected score: Dallas Mavericks 118.3 – Washington Wizards 113.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut
WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Mavericks 64%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Mavericks won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
216

Margin of Victory — Washington Wizards (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
62%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
11%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
4%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 216.

O/U LINE 210
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 220
74% over26% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
54% over46% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
17% over83% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cooper FlaggSF
21.0
Anthony DavisPF
20.4
Naji MarshallSF
15.2
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.2
Max ChristieSG
12.3
WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
CJ McCollumSG
18.8
Alex SarrC
16.3
Trae YoungPG
15.2
Kyshawn GeorgeSF
14.8
Tre JohnsonSG
12.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DAL
106.50
30th / 30
Points
WSH
111.50
25th / 30
DAL
43.90
13th / 30
Rebounds
WSH
45.50
10th / 30
DAL
23.80
27th / 30
Assists
WSH
25.60
21st / 30
DAL
101.76
6th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
WSH
104.07
2nd / 30
DAL
50.23%
28th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
WSH
52.53%
23rd / 30
DAL
14.00%
23rd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
WSH
14.76%
29th / 30
DAL
20.43%
28th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
WSH
23.38%
25th / 30
DAL
.312
8th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
WSH
.240
28th / 30
DAL
104.66
30th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
WSH
107.14
28th / 30
DAL
111.34
4th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
WSH
123.38
28th / 30
DAL
-6.68
25th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
WSH
-16.24
30th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
44.59%25th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.21%21st/30
9.5330th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.7820th/30
31.4525th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.5919th/30
30.31%29th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.94%12th/30
28.1117th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.7121st/30
52.9711th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.7512th/30
53.06%23rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
50.64%28th/30
19.8517th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.3729th/30
26.3412th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
20.9529th/30
75.37%25th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
73.39%28th/30
9.2427th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.7617th/30
33.907th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.9612th/30
8.4516th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
5.9630th/30
5.3110th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.773rd/30
15.6318th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.7228th/30
20.445th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.3920th/30
Opponent
45.97%9th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.02%22nd/30
10.421st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.9321st/30
31.253rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.8619th/30
33.33%6th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.80%21st/30
31.0528th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.3624th/30
58.9630th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.3927th/30
52.67%6th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.83%19th/30
17.987th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.8521st/30
24.8615th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.0418th/30
72.33%1st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.07%21st/30
12.2821st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.5924th/30
35.9729th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.2627th/30
8.6520th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
11.6329th/30
4.7217th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.0527th/30
13.3624th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.0530th/30
22.2116th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
17.581st/30
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