BKN112
FINAL
103IND
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Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers — Win Probability

FINAL
Brooklyn Nets logo
Brooklyn Nets
0-7
112
VS
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
1-6
103
Model expected score: Brooklyn Nets 115.7 – Indiana Pacers 123.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BKN
  • Mikel Brown Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Grant NelsonDay-To-Day
  • Egor DeminOut
IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pacers 73%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Nets won by 9
COMBINED SCORE
215

Margin of Victory — Indiana Pacers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
29%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+
17%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 215.

O/U LINE 210
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 220
84% over16% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
68% over32% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
48% over52% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
29% over71% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
14% over86% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BKN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Michael Porter Jr.SF
24.2
Cam ThomasSG
15.6
Noah ClowneyPF
12.3
Nic ClaxtonC
11.7
Egor DëminPG
10.3
IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Pascal SiakamPF
24.0
Bennedict MathurinSF
17.8
Andrew NembhardPG
16.9
Aaron NesmithSF
13.8
Jarace WalkerPF
11.6

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
BKN
111.88
T-25th / 30
Points
IND
111.63
28th / 30
BKN
40.38
26th / 30
Rebounds
IND
49.63
2nd / 30
BKN
24.25
24th / 30
Assists
IND
23.75
27th / 30
BKN
98.55
25th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
IND
104.08
3rd / 30
BKN
51.76%
25th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
IND
47.14%
30th / 30
BKN
12.72%
14th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
IND
10.87%
3rd / 30
BKN
27.88%
12th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
IND
27.17%
15th / 30
BKN
.294
16th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
IND
.299
14th / 30
BKN
113.52
25th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
107.25
28th / 30
BKN
126.33
30th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
114.81
13th / 30
BKN
-12.81
28th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
IND
-7.57
27th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
44.16%25th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
40.76%30th/30
13.7014th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.7723rd/30
41.984th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.0714th/30
32.63%26th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
30.91%30th/30
26.1323rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.8227th/30
48.2024th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.168th/30
54.21%18th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
47.67%30th/30
20.1717th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.3016th/30
26.5114th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.6210th/30
76.08%22nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
73.48%27th/30
13.199th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.935th/30
27.7829th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.7510th/30
7.7423rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.0029th/30
2.5430th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.3221st/30
14.8416th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.733rd/30
23.2122nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.5423rd/30
Opponent
51.21%30th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.28%13th/30
14.9727th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.535th/30
35.6412th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.078th/30
41.99%30th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.88%3rd/30
30.5725th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.1014th/30
53.2727th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.5613th/30
57.38%25th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.58%16th/30
20.2917th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
24.0229th/30
27.5224th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.7429th/30
73.73%2nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.13%12th/30
12.4323rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.614th/30
34.1226th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
37.3530th/30
8.7520th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.612nd/30
5.4523rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.3213th/30
13.8321st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.8527th/30
23.8525th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.5423rd/30
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