MIA120
FINAL
119LAC
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Miami Heat vs LA Clippers — Win Probability

FINAL
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
3-3
120
VS
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
3-2
119
Model expected score: Miami Heat 118.4 – LA Clippers 116.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
Nothing on the report.
LAC
  • Cam ChristieOut
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Clippers 51%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Heat won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
239

Margin of Victory — LA Clippers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
55%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
5%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 239.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 240
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Norman PowellSG
21.7
Tyler HerroSG
20.5
Bam AdebayoC
20.1
Andrew WigginsSF
15.4
Pelle LarssonSG
11.4
LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Kawhi LeonardSF
27.9
James HardenPG
25.4
Darius GarlandPG
19.9
Ivica ZubacC
14.4
John CollinsPF
13.6

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIA
123.86
4th / 30
Points
LAC
112.50
26th / 30
MIA
44.43
13th / 30
Rebounds
LAC
42.83
17th / 30
MIA
30.00
3rd / 30
Assists
LAC
24.83
23rd / 30
MIA
104.85
2nd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
LAC
96.02
29th / 30
MIA
58.19%
4th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
LAC
57.26%
8th / 30
MIA
13.28%
17th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
LAC
15.14%
30th / 30
MIA
21.12%
27th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
LAC
27.62%
12th / 30
MIA
.275
22nd / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
LAC
.235
28th / 30
MIA
118.12
12th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAC
117.17
14th / 30
MIA
111.58
3rd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAC
118.04
21st / 30
MIA
+6.54
6th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
LAC
-0.87
19th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
50.24%5th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.30%10th/30
13.6213th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.8910th/30
34.4719th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.8414th/30
39.53%6th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.70%12th/30
29.4312th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.1613th/30
51.2315th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.4720th/30
57.45%7th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.95%6th/30
18.3924th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.1827th/30
23.5725th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
20.4828th/30
78.03%15th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
83.90%6th/30
8.7226th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4614th/30
33.6510th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.1512th/30
8.7213th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.942nd/30
2.5929th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.388th/30
14.7114th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.1830th/30
19.071st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.962nd/30
Opponent
44.86%5th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.64%13th/30
14.1722nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.8029th/30
41.1526th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.4927th/30
34.44%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.08%26th/30
25.075th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.389th/30
46.323rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.957th/30
54.12%12th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.90%11th/30
18.9410th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.885th/30
23.437th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.873rd/30
80.81%22nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.75%25th/30
10.086th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.8526th/30
32.5618th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.037th/30
9.6724th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
11.4630th/30
4.2213th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.827th/30
14.8514th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.629th/30
20.167th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.965th/30
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