HOU128
FINAL
101BOS
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Houston Rockets vs Boston Celtics — Win Probability

FINAL
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
2-2
128
VS
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
3-3
101
Model expected score: Houston Rockets 118.3 – Boston Celtics 118.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut
BOS
Nothing on the report.

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Celtics 51%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Rockets won by 27
COMBINED SCORE
229

Margin of Victory — Boston Celtics (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
49%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
15%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 229.

O/U LINE 210
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 220
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 230
64% over36% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
44% over56% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
25% over75% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
11% over89% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Kevin DurantSF
26.0
Alperen ŞengünC
20.4
Amen ThompsonPG
18.3
Jabari Smith Jr.PF
15.8
Reed SheppardSG
13.5
BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jaylen BrownSF
28.7
Jayson TatumPF
21.8
Payton PritchardPG
17.0
Derrick WhiteSG
16.5
Neemias QuetaC
10.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
HOU
127.80
1st / 30
Points
BOS
111.57
27th / 30
HOU
48.40
5th / 30
Rebounds
BOS
43.57
14th / 30
HOU
26.40
13th / 30
Assists
BOS
22.29
29th / 30
HOU
98.63
25th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
BOS
95.72
29th / 30
HOU
58.39%
4th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
BOS
51.74%
25th / 30
HOU
13.22%
19th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
BOS
9.72%
1st / 30
HOU
36.79%
1st / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
BOS
29.47%
7th / 30
HOU
.406
1st / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
BOS
.186
30th / 30
HOU
129.58
1st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BOS
116.56
16th / 30
HOU
115.79
14th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BOS
115.22
12th / 30
HOU
+13.79
2nd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
BOS
+1.34
12th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
50.35%6th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.57%27th/30
13.9911th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
16.121st/30
30.8225th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.401st/30
45.39%1st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.63%26th/30
29.8112th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.8618th/30
56.175th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.2521st/30
53.07%22nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.55%18th/30
27.981st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
14.4829th/30
35.281st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
18.3630th/30
79.31%13th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.86%14th/30
14.404th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.035th/30
34.686th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.4919th/30
9.137th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.108th/30
6.085th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.677th/30
15.6124th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.492nd/30
20.686th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.5228th/30
Opponent
45.30%8th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
42.88%4th/30
16.0228th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.9222nd/30
43.6028th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.4524th/30
36.74%21st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.90%22nd/30
26.9710th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
22.831st/30
51.3017th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.616th/30
52.57%7th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
47.96%2nd/30
13.791st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
24.7728th/30
18.661st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.8926th/30
73.91%4th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.19%21st/30
11.9621st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.8829th/30
24.741st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.5822nd/30
7.307th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.272nd/30
3.857th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.2222nd/30
12.1727th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.125th/30
26.9730th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.704th/30
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