GS109
FINAL
114IND
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Golden State Warriors vs Indiana Pacers — Win Probability

FINAL
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
4-2
109
VS
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
0-5
114
Model expected score: Golden State Warriors 122.7 – Indiana Pacers 114.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut
IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Warriors 81%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Pacers won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
223

Margin of Victory — Indiana Pacers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
71%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
8%
Won by 8-14
9%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 223.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 230
65% over35% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
45% over55% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
12% over88% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
26.6
Jimmy ButlerSF
20.0
Kristaps PorziņģisC
16.1
Brandin PodziemskiSG
13.8
De'Anthony MeltonPG
12.3
IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Pascal SiakamPF
24.0
Bennedict MathurinSF
17.8
Andrew NembhardPG
16.9
Aaron NesmithSF
13.8
Jarace WalkerPF
11.6

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
GS
117.57
14th / 30
Points
IND
112.50
26th / 30
GS
41.86
20th / 30
Rebounds
IND
49.33
2nd / 30
GS
27.71
8th / 30
Assists
IND
22.83
28th / 30
GS
101.02
16th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
IND
104.92
3rd / 30
GS
56.07%
12th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
IND
46.89%
30th / 30
GS
14.50%
26th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
IND
10.72%
4th / 30
GS
22.95%
22nd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
IND
26.22%
16th / 30
GS
.291
16th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
IND
.309
11th / 30
GS
116.38
17th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
107.23
29th / 30
GS
114.54
11th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
115.49
13th / 30
GS
+1.84
11th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
IND
-8.26
27th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.76%16th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
40.24%30th/30
15.842nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.2320th/30
41.726th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.4010th/30
37.97%11th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.05%29th/30
23.9028th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.7827th/30
43.2729th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.5812th/30
55.23%15th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
47.13%30th/30
21.0714th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.9716th/30
24.7519th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.4410th/30
85.14%4th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
73.74%26th/30
9.4723rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.667th/30
31.9617th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.3612th/30
9.059th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
5.7230th/30
3.9624th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.2918th/30
16.2627th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.554th/30
20.938th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.6724th/30
Opponent
48.23%22nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.75%13th/30
12.309th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
9.852nd/30
36.3415th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.575th/30
33.85%8th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
30.24%2nd/30
29.9820th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.1821st/30
51.3318th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.0623rd/30
58.40%27th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.89%22nd/30
17.685th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
25.5829th/30
21.493rd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
31.6129th/30
82.24%26th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.90%23rd/30
8.773rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.695th/30
31.8212th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
38.4430th/30
8.0613th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.353rd/30
2.972nd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.1311th/30
14.1418th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.2326th/30
19.373rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.9922nd/30
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