MIN122
FINAL
105CHA
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Charlotte Hornets — Win Probability

FINAL
Minnesota Timberwolves logo
Minnesota Timberwolves
2-3
122
VS
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
2-3
105
Model expected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 119.2 – Charlotte Hornets 124.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIN
  • Anthony EdwardsOut
  • Donte DiVincenzoOut
CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Hornets 65%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Timberwolves won by 17
COMBINED SCORE
227

Margin of Victory — Charlotte Hornets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
36%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
13%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 227.

O/U LINE 210
96% over ✓4% under
O/U LINE 220
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 230
76% over24% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
57% over43% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
36% over64% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
19% over81% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony EdwardsSG
28.8
Julius RandlePF
21.1
Jaden McDanielsPF
14.8
Ayo DosunmuSG
14.4
Donte DiVincenzoSG
12.2
CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon MillerSF
20.2
LaMelo BallPG
20.1
Kon KnueppelSF
18.5
Miles BridgesPF
17.1
Collin SextonSG
14.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIN
115.50
20th / 30
Points
CHA
120.83
8th / 30
MIN
39.67
27th / 30
Rebounds
CHA
45.67
13th / 30
MIN
24.00
23rd / 30
Assists
CHA
27.67
9th / 30
MIN
98.93
24th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CHA
101.76
11th / 30
MIN
56.64%
10th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CHA
56.42%
11th / 30
MIN
13.11%
16th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CHA
13.64%
23rd / 30
MIN
22.83%
23rd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CHA
28.28%
10th / 30
MIN
.287
18th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CHA
.306
13th / 30
MIN
116.75
14th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHA
118.75
9th / 30
MIN
117.93
18th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHA
121.86
28th / 30
MIN
-1.18
18th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CHA
-3.11
22nd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.83%10th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.92%13th/30
13.4814th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.7410th/30
33.5319th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.6512th/30
40.20%7th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.14%9th/30
28.6414th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.8619th/30
52.7311th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.1524th/30
54.31%19th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.78%10th/30
19.0420th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.8017th/30
24.7718th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.5314th/30
76.87%20th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.40%17th/30
9.7722nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.3015th/30
30.3323rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.5810th/30
7.9216th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.7226th/30
5.569th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.0921st/30
14.6616th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.5622nd/30
24.7726th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.155th/30
Opponent
47.67%20th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.44%26th/30
12.8016th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.5625th/30
35.8813th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.0018th/30
35.68%13th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
40.95%29th/30
28.4717th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.8415th/30
50.7115th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.7912th/30
56.15%20th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.92%18th/30
22.5822nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.4914th/30
28.3023rd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.5710th/30
79.76%18th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.33%T-14th/30
10.286th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.174th/30
33.0220th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
28.666th/30
6.404th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.0312th/30
4.0410th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.776th/30
14.3216th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.2721st/30
21.2310th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.4416th/30
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